MORE:
• Virginia Economic Forecast 2009-10
The Richmond region has lost more jobs than any other metro area in the state, an economist said yesterday.
From when employment -- the number of jobs -- peaked in the Richmond area in August 2007 through March 2009, the region lost 26,000 jobs. The job losses included thousands resulting from the bankruptcies of Circuit City Stores Inc., LandAmerica Financial Group Inc., and Qimonda AG.
The Hampton Roads area's employment hit its highest mark in July 2007. Northern Virginia's peak came a year later. Both regions have lost 20,000 jobs since their employment peaked.
Despite the time differences, the numbers can be compared because they represent the duration and depth of the recession in a given area, said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at the Richmond firm Chmura Economics & Analytics.
But there also is a bright side: The layoffs should not be so severe in the months to come.
"We're still declining . . . but the worst of it is behind us," Chmura said while presenting the Virginia Economic Forecast funded by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy for the past 10 years.
Virginia also is doing better than the nation. From March 2008 to March 2009, Virginia employment fell by 2.4 percent. During that same period, employment fell by 3.5 percent nationwide, the report said.
Chmura said she expects the recession to end during the fourth quarter of this year or early in 2010.
The reason: The stock market is performing well; inventories of goods are declining, indicating that demand will renew a need for supply; federal stimulus money will begin or already has filtered into the public; and consumer confidence is rising.
"The fastest rate of decline is behind us," Chmura said.
Another study could bolster that belief. A June 5 study conducted by the Society for Human Resource Management said more workers are expected to find jobs in June compared with the previous six months.
The study is based on a monthly survey of human resources officials at manufacturing and service-sector companies.
So what happened here? The Richmond area traditionally fares better during downturns, because the economy is diverse and there are a number of company headquarters based here. Typically, layoffs happen in the field before they come home, which is one reason why hosting corporate offices is desirable.
But what began in the housing industry filtered into insurance and finance. Retailers also took a hit as confidence eroded, Chmura said.
In one month, the Richmond area lost two corporate giants, both Fortune 1000 companies with long histories in the region. Consumer electronics retailer Circuit City filed for bankruptcy in November. Title insurer LandAmerica filed a few weeks later.
Both were based in Henrico County.
"I've never seen layoffs to this extent," said Hugh Keogh, president and CEO of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, which was host for the event.
Contact Emily C. Dooley at (804) 649-6016 or edooley@timesdispatch.com.
Email
Facebook
Google
Twitter
Favorites
More
Advertisement