Evidence is piling up that the worst part of the recession has ended. But that doesn't mean the pain is over.
A better-than-expected unemployment report yesterday -- job losses in April declined to the lowest level in six months -- capped a week of encouraging news, including firmer home sales, a revival in consumer spending and fresh optimism about the biggest U.S. banks.
The economy remains vulnerable to further shocks, and 13.7 million people are unemployed.
The jobless rate in April rose to 8.9 percent and still seems headed for 10 percent.
But the pace of layoffs slowed last month when employers cut 539,000 jobs. Analysts were expecting 620,000 job cuts.
Yet confidence is building that the recession will end this summer or fall, setting the stage for a slow recovery.
"Hopefully the economy may be slowing its descent," said David A. Brat, chairman of economics and business at Randolph-Macon College. "We're still losing jobs, but hopefully we're losing them at a slower rate."
Pointing to recent improvements, President Barack Obama said yesterday: "The gears of our economic engine do seem to be slowly turning once again."
By some measures, the darkest months have passed, some analysts say. "The winds are still howling, but I think we can see the sunlight on the distant horizon," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
Staff writer Emily C. Dooley contributed to this report.
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