Livestock farmers are demanding a change in the nation's ethanol policy, claiming current rules could lead to spikes in meat prices and even shortages at supermarkets if corn growers have a bad year.
The amount of corn consumed by the ethanol industry combined with continued demand from overseas has cattle and hog farmers worried that if corn production drops because of drought or another natural disaster, the cost of feed could skyrocket, leaving them little choice but to reduce the size of their herds.
A smaller supply could, in turn, mean higher meat prices and less selection at the grocery store.
The ethanol industry argues such scenarios are unlikely, but farmers have the backing of food manufacturers, who also fear that a federal mandate to increase production of ethanol will protect that industry from any kind of rationing amid a corn shortage.
The subject of debate is the Renewable Fuel Standard, a 2005 law requiring the nation to produce 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuel by 2012. The standard was changed in 2007 to gradually increase the requirement to 36 billion gallons by 2022.
While a $5 billion-a-year federal ethanol subsidy is scheduled to expire this year, the production requirement will remain, unless it's changed by Congress.
That has other corn consumers worried that if production falls and rationing is needed, ethanol companies will be exempt.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently reduced its estimate of this year's corn crop because of flooding in the Midwest and drought in the southern plains, and corn reserves are expected to fall to a 20-day supply next year. A 30-day supply is considered healthy.
At the same time, the price of corn for livestock feed has risen from an average of just over $3 a bushel in 2006-07 to an average of more than $6 this year.
"If we get a short crop, the ethanol industry does not participate in rationing and the brunt will fall on livestock and poultry," said Steve Meyer, president of Paragon Economics, a livestock and grain marketing and economic advisory company in Adel, Iowa.
A bill introduced last month by U.S. Rep. Robert W. Goodlatte, R-6th, would partially waive the ethanol goals when corn inventories are low.
The Grocery Manufacturers Association, which represents more than 300 food and beverage makers, also has endorsed the bill.
"We're behind livestock producers on this issue," said Geoff Moody, the association's director of energy and environmental policy. "We believe if there is a need to ration that ethanol will eat first because of the mandate."
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