Retail sales are expected to top $2.53 trillion in 2012, compared with last year's $2.45 trillion, an encouraging sign for an economy working its way out of a severe downturn.
"These numbers are a vote of confidence in the retail industry and our ability to succeed even in a challenging economy," Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a speech Monday at the trade group's annual meeting here.
The show is expected to draw 24,000 retailers and analysts from around the globe.
The organization expects retail sales for 2012 to increase 3.4 percent, which is below last year's 4.7 percent increase. The strong growth last year was helped by weak sales results in 2010.
The 3.4 percent jump would outpace the 10-year annual average increase of nearly 3.1 percent. It also would mark a third consecutive year of recovery for consumer spending.
Given the harsh economic realities of the past several years, the expectation of retail growth, on the heels of a better-than-expected holiday shopping season, bodes well for the economy as a whole, Shay said.
Especially, he said, because the retail sector is a job creator.
"With the presidential campaign heating up, there's a lot of attention on one question: Where are the jobs? Well, you and I know where the jobs are. They are in retail — because retail means jobs — supporting 42 million American jobs to be exact," he said.
Shay said retail's power as a job engine stretches far beyond shopping centers and big-box stores and trickles down throughout the economy.
"Retail supports one in four American jobs. Retail generates almost one-fifth of our nation's gross domestic product. And retail contributes billions to other industries — from manufacturing to real estate to finance," he said.
Former President Bill Clinton reinforced Shay's message on the importance of retail industry to the economy, especially after the economic downturn.
Clinton said during a speech at the convention Monday that the retail industry's 4.7 percent growth last year outpaced the overall economy which, he said, grew at "just under 2 percent."
"That's a good thing for all of us," Clinton said during his speech. "As all of you know, retail makes up nearly 20 percent of our GDP and supports, one way or another, about 25 percent of our jobs."
The positive forecast for this year follows more than 18 months of year-over-year sales increases, Shay said.
It also follows a decent holiday shopping season.
Research firm ShopperTrak said national retail sales grew 3.5 percent in November and December when compared with the previous year.
What is interesting about the sales figures, ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said, is that sales grew while fewer people came into stores.
Foot traffic at retailers fell 3.1 percent during the two months, he said.
"What's happening is consumers are doing a great amount of window shopping online. So [shoppers] are spending more money but with fewer trips to the mall," Martin said.
Shifts in how consumers shop is a major topic during this week's conference as retailers begin to look at ways to reach shoppers across several platforms, including online, in stores and via mobile devices.
Alison Paul, vice chair and U.S. retail and distribution leader for the accounting and consulting firm Deloitte LLP, said retailers need to understand that modern shoppers are "tech savvy, more discerning and looking for more options."
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