Universities call it "summer melt."
It's a perennial phenomenon that keeps admissions officials guessing about how many prospective freshmen might forfeit deposits they paid in May and not show up for the fall semester.
Fearing the recession might add fuel for a bigger "melt" this year, some schools increased the number of admission offers they made last winter -- and now are finding they'll have a bumper crop of freshmen this fall.
"We've exceeded our enrollment target," said Nanci Tessier, the University of Richmond's vice president for enrollment management. "Certainly that was not our plan, but we're absolutely delighted to have these students coming."
UR had set a goal of 805 first-year students. Instead, it will welcome 926 first-years on Aug. 19, compared with 738 last year.
To accommodate the additional students, UR has hired new faculty and is keeping open a residence hall that had been scheduled to be closed for renovation, Tessier said.
On Monday, Virginia Union University expects 547 freshmen and possibly more. The university, which accepts new students until classes begin, ended last year with about 400 freshmen and had set a goal of 500 for this fall.
It's the largest freshman class in five years, said Vanessa Moody Coombs, VUU's vice president for university relations. Since May, only 27 students who had previously planned to attend have told the university they aren't coming, and that's about average.
Coombs attributes the low summer melt to the university's decision to reduce the amount owed on the first tuition installment to help students facing economic challenges.
The idea, she said, is that once the students are on campus the university will be able to help them find financial aid to pay the remainder of the tuition.
Already, the university is awarding more than $1 million in scholarships to freshmen and returning students with grade-point averages of 3.0 or better.
Financial aid may be a factor in UR's increased enrollment, Tessier said. She thinks the university's message about access and affordability -- that they don't necessarily pay the sticker price -- is being heard by students.
UR's first-year students include 198 who are the first in their families to go to college, or 21 percent of the class. And 216 students, or 23 percent, are U.S. citizens who represent a minority.
Determining the number of acceptance letters to send out each year to allow for summer melt is both an art and a science for admissions officials, Tessier said.
All colleges and universities experience a melt for a variety of reasons, such as when students get accepted off the waiting list from the school that was their first choice. But the economic meltdown added another potential cause for a numbers thaw.
"This year because of the recession, lots of institutions, particularly private colleges and universities, were really worried about students' ability to finance the education but also their willingness to pay for a private education," she said.
Tessier is confident that UR's class size will hold up because tuition payments were due at the beginning of the month.
Other schools are still waiting for final numbers. Randolph-Macon College in Ashland increased admission offers because of the economy, but expects its freshman class size will remain on target. As of yesterday, 372 freshmen were expected to arrive Aug. 27, just one student more than last year.
Virginia Commonwealth University expects to hit its target enrollment of 3,700 freshmen when new students move in Aug. 15-16. But tuition payments aren't due until Aug. 20, when classes begin.
Contact Karin Kapsidelis at (804) 649-6119 or kkapsidelis@timesdispatch.com.
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