McDonnell appears to be leading in governor's race, but Deeds still has chance, experts say

As their summer jog heads for the fall sprint, Republican Bob McDonnell appears to be ahead in the race for governor, but don't count Democrat R. Creigh Deeds out, political analysts say.

"The race has gone from even-Steven after the primary to a clear McDonnell lead as we head into the Labor Day turn -- but the real campaign is ahead," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry J. Sabato.

"The remaining two months of September and October will tell the tale."

In recent weeks both candidates have begun to pick up the pace. After their first debate at the end of July, they've begun aggressively pushing out position papers on issues such as transportation and education. Both hit the road in recreational vehicles to tour rural regions of the state. And they're taking sharper aim at each other.

Deeds veered from talking about the economy and raised the abortion issue, an attempt, say political observers, to portray the anti-abortion McDonnell as an extremist and to energize the expanded Democratic base that delivered the state to Barack Obama last year.

Four recent polls show McDonnell leading by anywhere from 7 to 15 percentage points, but Deeds and his advisers say people are yet to pay attention to the contest.

"A lot of voters are just beginning to tune in to this race," said Deeds senior adviser Mo Elleithee. "We're finding they are surprised when they learn about Bob McDonnell and his record."

McDonnell campaign manager Phil Cox said the Deeds campaign is "using a divisive issue in an attempt to energize a depressed base. They are right now practicing the politics of division."

"The momentum is clearly on our side," Cox said. "People see Bob McDonnell as a leader with ideas who will create new jobs."

In a Washington Post poll, released Saturday night, McDonnell led 47 percent to 40 percent among all registered voters, and 54 percent to 39 percent among voters who say they are certain to vote.

The poll of 1,002 randomly selected adults, conducted Tuesday through Friday, showed that few voters have followed the contest closely and that many still have open minds.

But the survey included details that are sure to be of concern to the Deeds camp.

In Northern Virginia, where Obama beat Republican John McCain by 233,000 votes in 2008, Deeds has only a slight edge over McDonnell -- 45 percent to 42 percent among all registered voters.

Among independents, McDonnell leads Deeds by 50 percent to 32 percent.

Quentin Kidd, political scientist at Christopher Newport University, noted recently on the Virginia Tomorrow blog, that Deeds had to reorganize after the June 9 primary, when his campaign was broke. He noted that McDonnell, who was unopposed for the GOP nomination, has been running a general election campaign for about a year.

This gave McDonnell the chance to introduce himself to Virginians as a family man focused on bread and butter family issues, Kidd said.

"With the collapsing economy, billion-dollar federal bailouts and trillion-dollar deficits as a backdrop, McDonnell began to sound a lot like a moderate business-minded Southern version of a Rockefeller Republican," Kidd wrote.

Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey acknowledged that "the national mood is at a different place than it was a couple of weeks ago." Still, he said that as the race heads into the fall, the Deeds campaign will further "define the debate" and highlight the contrast between the candidates on social issues and the economy.

Political commentator Bob Holsworth said that by emphasizing that McDonnell opposes abortion, even in the event of rape or incest, Deeds is trying to "excite the base and scare the moderates."

Holsworth thinks Democrats have been slow to recognize the economic trends that are turning voters against them. And he thinks Republicans have done a good job of chipping away at Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's popularity, making it harder for Deeds to run as a logical successor to Mark R. Warner and Kaine.

Once with a favorable rating of 55 percent, Kaine now is in the low 40's, noted Holsworth. During Kaine's term, Virginia, like most other states, has endured months of sour economic news that have forced deeper state budget cuts. The GOP has also attacked Kaine for the time he spends serving as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

"What the polls really say is Republicans are mad as hell about Obama and are going to turn out disproportionately in November," Sabato said. "Democrats have won everything over the past decade -- they're satisfied. They're not charged up. They're certainly not angry."

So, as the election heads into the home stretch, he believes Deeds' chance to go from underdog to top dog will largely depend on Obama.

"Deeds has got to hope that Obama's approval takes an uptick and that the economy improves measurably between now and November," Sabato added.

Obama can still help Deeds in two ways -- get out some of the suburban vote in Northern Virginia and most of all, motivate African-Americans in Tidewater, Richmond and elsewhere, Sabato said.

"And so far they're just completely unmotivated."

Contact Tyler Whitley at (804) 649-6780 or twhitley@timesdispatch.com.

Contact Jim Nolan at (804) 649-6061 or jnolan@timesdispatch.com.