National Implications: McDonnell's Win Is a Model for Conservative Revival

It is impossible to exaggerate the importance of Bob McDonnell's comfortable win in the race for governor of Virginia -- not because it necessarily portends a GOP sweep in the 2010 midterms, but because it serves as a model for conservative and Republican victories in battleground states across the country.

McDonnell's election last night -- and his impressive coattails -- are the product of personality and philosophy. McDonnell triumphed, in a state that Barack Obama carried by 6 percentage points, by running as an unabashed conservative -- but never an angry conservative.

In at least one respect, the governor-elect resembles Obama: His public persona is utterly unflappable, always cool, calm, and collected. McDonnell revived the sunny side of conservatism that has for too long lingered in the shadow of wedge-issue attack politics. It is, once again, no exaggeration to compare McDonnell's style -- friendly but focused, relaxed but relentless -- to that of Ronald Reagan, the ultimate master of melding the conservative philosophy to a positive outlook.

McDonnell was able to run against Obama's policies -- higher taxes, expanding government, skyrocketing public debt, increasing regulation -- without ever attacking the president personally. In public and private, McDonnell tended to be vaguely complimentary of the president, noting, for example, Obama's support for charter schools. At the same time, he skillfully exploited growing concerns about the president's policies. But he never made it explicitly about the man in the White House. And McDonnell's television commercials included more African-Americans than any Virginia Republican's in recent memory -- almost certainly more than any GOP candidate in the state's history.

Still, there's no doubt that McDonnell ran as a clear-cut conservative -- as did his running mates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, who both won, sealing the first statewide GOP sweep in Virginia since 1997. His final TV ad, which ran endlessly in the last few days of the campaign, emphasized four words that epitomize fiscal conservatism: "low taxes" and "control spending." That simple message, of course, also serves as an unmistakable condemnation of everything going on across the Potomac in Democratic-controlled Washington, D.C.

It was no accident that McDonnell's stump speech in the past week was liberally sprinkled with references to limited government.

While he stressed pragmatic, conservative economic principles, McDonnell never shied away from his pro-life, socially conservative beliefs -- other than to ease back from some of the more inflammatory language in his 20-year-old graduate school thesis, an ancient academic pursuit that had virtually no impact on the election.

McDonnell chose to focus on jobs, roads, and schools rather than abortion -- an eminently sensible approach for anyone running for governor of Virginia because the office offers numerous opportunities to craft policy affecting economic development, transportation, and education, but relatively few chances to change abortion laws, except at the margins.

"Government shouldn't do things that undermine the family, shouldn't do things that undermine traditional values that have served Virginia well," he said this fall during a conversation with the paper's Editorial Board. "But government shouldn't be the moral police."

His campaign understood from the beginning that a social conservative can win if voters know that he understands their most fundamental concerns and government's role in addressing them. Talk about low taxes, good schools, and sensible transportation plans instills confidence. Shrill rhetoric about gay marriage, illegal immigration, and the death penalty does not.

Like the Obama campaign last year, McDonnell's was deeply disciplined. During a lunch meeting with the paper's editorial writers in the late summer, someone asked the candidate about the RV he would be using to barnstorm across the state. "What's the brand?" Before McDonnell could answer, his communications director, Tucker Martin, deeply engrossed in his BlackBerry, piped up: "Bob's for jobs!"

McDonnell roared -- OK, laughed enthusiastically, he doesn't roar -- while his aide sheepishly returned to his typing. "Well, at least we've made that clear," the candidate said.

This fall, McDonnell made his philosophy clear to an electorate that had been trending Democratic since 2001. Last night, he proved -- or reminded the forgetful -- that a solidly conservative message, delivered with clarity and good humor, can prevail in a highly competitive state. Republicans across the country should pay very close attention.

Contact Bob Rayner at (804) 649-6073 or brayner@timesdispatch.com.