For the first time in 20 years, Richmond looks as if it's maintaining a population above 200,000 for an official count by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The city had 204,451 residents as of July 1, 2009, according to estimates released this week by the federal agency.
While Chesterfield and Henrico counties continue to exceed Richmond in population, the midyear snapshot marks the third straight year that census estimates show the city with more than 200,000 residents and growing, after years of declines fueled by suburban migration and racial friction.
And with the 2010 census under way, the 2009 estimate is bolstering the confidence of officials that the city will be able to count more than 200,000 residents at this critical time.
The decennial census is important because it's used to reapportion seats in the House of Representatives and to disburse billions of dollars in federal aid to localities.
However, the stakes are particularly high for Richmond this year, officials say, because having a population of at least 200,000 would qualify the city for additional federal grant funding for transportation and other services that goes to large cities.
"In a lot of these programs, they look at a city differently" if it has at least 200,000 residents, said Jeffrey Bourne, deputy chief of staff to Mayor Dwight C. Jones and the administration's point person on efforts to maximize the city's census count.
Also, 200,000 represents a symbolic plateau for the city's revitalization efforts. "We want to be perceived as a city on the go," Jones said.
The latest estimate puts the city's population near its level from 1990, when the official count was 203,056.
That marked a drop from a peak of 249,621 in 1970, after the city annexed 23 square miles of Chesterfield -- a move that federal courts determined was designed partly to dilute black voting strength. However, with suburban flight partly fed by crime, the city's population had dipped to 197,790 in 2000.
The city's population eventually started to rebound, reaching 200,655 in 2007 and 202,867 in 2008, according to the Census Bureau estimates. Those figures are less precise than the decennial counts, because they're based on the 2000 count, plus births, deaths and estimates on people moving in and out of the locality.
John Moeser, a senior fellow at the Bonner Center for Civic Engagement at the University of Richmond, said the city's population growth is fueled largely by renewed interest in urban living by empty-nester couples and individuals without school-age children, as well as high gasoline prices.
"You've got the children of the boomers who are moving into the city and then you've got the boomers themselves moving back into the city," Moeser said.
Even pre-baby boomers are "downsizing. They don't want a yard anymore, yet they want all the benefits that a city provides. It's a real magnet," he said.
Contact Will Jones at (804) 649-6911 or wjones@timesdispatch.com.

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