Schapiro: The funny math of a GOP takeover

How many Republicans does it take to take back the Virginia Senate?

Two? Nope.

Three? Perhaps.

Try five. No joke.

Maybe it's funny math — embraced, surprisingly, by GOP strategists — but it's another way of emphasizing that Republicans have their work cut out for them in toppling the last redoubt of Democratic power on Capitol Square.

Not that Republicans haven't several significant advantages: a governor of their own with $3 million-plus in campaign cash and a willingness to spend it, an electorate sour on Democrats because of the sagging economy and more candidates than the other guys. That forces Dick Saslaw, the majority leader, to make tough decisions about who gets a financial lifeline — or doesn't.

That said, Democrats are looking to artful redistricting and surprise outcomes in Republican primaries last month to keep the 40-member Senate out of reach and possibly pad their majority, potentially hobbling Bob McDonnell at the peak of his term.

Before the campaign season opened in earnest, Republicans were drawn out of two seats. One in Hampton Roads was moved to Northern Virginia. Another was transferred to central Virginia from the southwest. R's would have to hold those seats to stay at their current 18.

Working in the GOP's favor: The shifted districts — both open seats — span friendly territory, chunks of rural and suburban Virginia carried by Republicans in presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial elections since 2004.

But — and it's a big but — Democrats could be competitive for the two seats because Republicans may not have chosen their strongest candidates.

In Northern Virginia, specifically, the outer Beltway suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William counties, the GOP nominee is Dick Black, a former delegate best known for bashing gays, thundering about pornography and handing out life-size plastic likenesses of fetuses as testimony to his opposition to abortion.

Shawn Mitchell, owner of a Loudoun HVAC company and a veteran of the Gulf War, is the Democratic candidate. Mitchell probably wouldn't have had a chance against John Stirrup, the Prince William County supervisor Black beat in a three-way primary.

But now Mitchell faces a conservative caricature who passes for a candidate. That could augur independent and centrist Republican votes for Mitchell and cash and services he might have only dreamed about.

In a district that wanders from Goochland County to Lynchburg, Republicans chose from a five-candidate field Tom Garrett, a Louisa County prosecutor who ran with Ken Cuccinelli's blessing as a clone of the attorney general.

The Democratic nominee, Bert Dodson, the owner of a pest-control business, lives where roughly one in four votes are, in Lynchburg, and was elected to the City Council three times. His address is a not-inconsequential geopolitical plus. And he's well-financed.

If everything has to go right for Mitchell and Dodson to win, so, too, must the planets align for Republicans to snatch three seats from Democrats for free-and-clear control of the Senate, albeit slender — 21-19.

But where? That's why Republicans are challenging 16 of 20 Democratic incumbents. It's a campaign of attrition, financed, in part, by the Bank of Bob.

Roscoe Reynolds of Henry County, one of the last rural Democrats, is facing Bill Stanley of Franklin County. He moved, having been drawn out of his seat. Stanley has already received $93,000 from McDonnell.

Also running with a handout from McDonnell — about $50,000 — is Mickey Chohany, a Williamsburg businessman. He's opposing John Miller, a Newport News Democrat barely elected four years ago. District lines are friendlier this go-around.

Other Democrats to watch: Edd Houck of Spotsylvania, No. 2 on the powerful Senate Finance Committee and who has had opposition in every campaign since he was first elected in 1983; Ralph Northam of Norfolk; John Edwards of Roanoke, and Toddy Puller of Fairfax.

In a new district full of new faces, Puller is opposed by Jeff Frederick. He was so unpopular with Republicans they kicked him out as state party chairman. But Frederick is a master of modern political technology, combining shoe leather and social media for a primary win that even critics say just might make him a contender for the fall.

No joke.

Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 649-814. His column appears Wednesday and Sunday. Watch his video column Thursday on Times-Dispatch.com. Follow him on Twitter.com/RTDSchapiro. Listen to his analysis 8:33 a.m. Friday on WCVE (88.9 FM).