Get ready for Next Economy right here

Mick Fleming's message might have sounded like a bunch of chamber of commerce talk.

After all, he runs a national organization that serves chamber professionals, and he was invited by the Greater Richmond Chamber to highlight the major trends facing boosters of business and their communities.

But when his Nov. 30 presentation thumped on the arrival of the Next Economy, the audience zeroed in. It was the money shot. 

The conventional cycle is for a bad economy to transition into a good economy, wiping away tough times and replacing them with the expected return to routine growth and prosperity. In other words: Just hang on and life will be good again at some future point. 

Not this time.

"We're going from bad to Next Economy," said Fleming, president of the Washington-based American Chamber of Commerce Executives. "Think about it."

That's "think" as in really understanding economic changes creating new environments and the potential for major structural shifts in how business, government and nonprofits work — or don't work. 

Consider these important factors: intense competition in virtually every market, comparatively high unemployment, ever-changing technology and innovation that can obliterate capital-intensive employers, tighter regulation of financing and credit, painful screw-ups such as the foreclosure mess, and the cumulative effect of the lack of confidence among cautious businesses and squeezed middle-class consumers alike.

And one more point: The first of the estimated 76 million baby boomers turns 65 on Jan. 1, marking a generational departure out of the traditional work force that's going to trigger revolution in how to live out the retirement years. If there is retirement. 

The Next Economy is less about bad or good. It's about different. Very different.

We can also thank, if that's possible, the Great Recession for serving up the Next Economy, which has become a popular theme for analysts and economic experts this year. The noise will get louder with the arrival of former Labor Secretary and Democratic presidential adviser Robert B. Reich's new book, "Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future," which pins growing political backlash on four decades of income inequality.  

In his Richmond visit, Fleming pointed to industries that were robust before the worst recession since the Great Depression but are now ejecting any canned notion that a recovery will mean simply going back to the former good life. "The landscape is going to be different," he added.

We see that in the building industry, for example. How many builders are going to depend on speculative complexes, commercial buildings or homes for a good chunk of their revenue? Few, if any.

Markets such as the Richmond region were considered overbuilt with retailers during the go-go times. That can't continue in the years ahead. 

Energy is ripe for reinvention, with added pressure for green technology at more affordable prices. 

Fleming also cited the media business where business models are being turned upside down, in part because advertising supports many sources, not just pure news providers. 

The upshot is that the Next Economy is forcing rebuilding on the fly. The need for speed will press changes in decision-making as well, Fleming predicts. We'll move from consensus to accenting — everyone gets a voice, but not everyone gets a vote. 

So, what should the Richmond region think harder about with the Next Economy? And what should we do now?

Here's an incomplete short list that I encourage you to build on (in reader comments online or in letters to the editor):

•Buy from local businesses. They provide local jobs. They're more than stocking-stuffers. 

•Give to local nonprofits working on solutions that match your values. Check out the new site for background information on charities helping to advance positive results. 

•Participate in the Capital Region Collaborative's outreach to establish and advance strategic priorities. The collaboration of government and business in a nine-locality region intends to partner with those organizations that are also advancing the quality of life, whether it be social stability and community awareness; regionally coordinated transportation; improving education, business and economic development; or boosting our diverse culture. 

•Support the Greater Richmond Partnership's efforts to attract more jobs from new employers interested in calling our region home. Every time we improve a facet of our region we add one more reason for a company to move here. We've got an educated work force, powerhouse universities and colleges, plenty of office space, land to build and established strength in clusters of business (finance, for example) to make newcomers feel comfortable in our economy — and community. 

•Examine the anticipated first-year studies by Richmond's Future, a think tank created by Eugene Trani, former president of Virginia Commonwealth University. Expect initial reports on establishing key benchmarks for regional comparison, an assessment on what's already been studied and a futurist's view of opportunities (such as the huge expansion of Fort Lee, a military operation in Prince George County) and threats.

•Encourage local governments to deepen the commitment to regional results. Notice I didn't say regional government. We can't wait for a new structure. But governments can work together on results that eliminate duplication, save money and keep vital services stable. Innovation here would stand out nationwide. 

And, finally, commit in 2011 to learn more about your region. Set aside the time to become a student of what makes our economy tick and what's needed to improve our region. And here's something new: Figure out just what this Next Economy means to you and the Richmond region. Own a role in the solutions. 

Thanks to Mick Fleming for the timely end-of-the year assignment.  

Tom Silvestri is president and publisher of the Richmond Times-Dispatch. He's also the chair of the Greater Richmond Chamber and a board member of the groups mentioned above. Wearing his publisher hat, he thanks readers who support advertisers of The Times-Dispatch by buying their goods and services. Without that support, there are no daily news reports or jobs for hundreds of Richmond-based employees.

Reach him at (804) 649-6121 or at

tsilvestri@timesdispatch.com.