Third-party resurgence seems unlikely

As Americans grew increasingly frustrated over the long standoff between the White House and Republicans in Congress over the debt ceiling, perceptions of "dysfunction" in Washington also led political pundits to suggest that a "third-party moment" may be approaching.

Introducing a segment on NPR's "Talk of the Nation," radio host Neal Conan said that "polls show a majority of Americans so frustrated with both political parties, they say they'd like to see a new alternative." Statistics maven Nate Silver pointed out on his New York Times blog that the "combined unfavorable score for both [political] parties — 104 percent — is also a record, and represents the first time that the figure has been above 100."

Pointing to evidence like this, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman predicted that "a viable, centrist, third presidential ticket, elected by an Internet convention, is going to emerge in 2012."

Such predictions from political prognosticators are not new. Repeatedly in years past, they have interpreted voters' frustrations with the Republicans and Democrats as a ripening condition for a third party to emerge and push the two major parties aside.

Those predictions did not come true before. How likely are they to be accurate today?

Judging from the situation in Virginia, not likely at all.

Because Virginia holds its state elections in odd-numbered years, out of sync with most of the rest of the states, it is widely seen as a bellwether of the country's political mood.

In 2009, for instance, Republicans swept the top three statewide offices here, anticipating the landslide return in 2010 of a GOP majority to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Four years earlier, Democrat Tim Kaine won the governor's mansion, followed in 2006 by the Democratic Party regaining control of both chambers of Congress.

In 1993, Republican George Allen's come-from-behind victory in the governor's race portended the first GOP takeover of Congress in 40 years.

If the electorate's mood really favors a third-party surge, we would be seeing it in Virginia. There would be a demand for third-party and independent candidates for the General Assembly, and candidates would rise to meet that demand.

Yet according to records available through the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), there are only seven independent candidates seeking election to the 100-member House of Delegates this year. There are four independent candidates for the 40-member state Senate.

At the same time, 62 seats in the House are uncontested — that is, there is only one candidate for the office — and 15 Senate seats are uncontested. This means that 62 percent of Virginia voters will have no alternative for delegate on Election Day in November, and 37 percent will have no alternative for senator.

Of those independent candidates for the House, one is an incumbent — Lacey Putney, currently the longest-serving member of the General Assembly. Of the four independent state Senate candidates, one is a disgruntled Republican who became perturbed when an incumbent GOP senator moved into his district to challenge an incumbent Democrat.

There are two fairly well-organized third parties in Virginia, the Independent Greens and the Libertarian Party, but neither has recruited a large number of candidates. The Independent Greens are fielding five, and the Libertarians may have two (one running for the House, one for the Senate). The other candidates are unaffiliated.

The filing deadline for independent candidates is Aug. 23, the same day that a handful of Republican and Democratic nomination contests will be settled through primary elections. It is possible that a few more candidates will declare their intentions to run by then.

Is it probable, however, that 50 or more independent candidates will throw their hats in the ring to create contests in those single-candidate House districts? That 20 or more independents will choose to make the state Senate competitive? The thought itself is chimerical.

The wishful-thinking pundits who predict a third-party renaissance in American politics for 2012 have in mind a knight on a white horse who will upend the political establishment.

A political hero in the White House is not sufficient, however. He (or she) would need support in Congress and in the state legislatures to push through his programs. Without third-party and independent candidates seeking those lower offices and providing the logistical and political support for the top of the ticket, it is unlikely in the extreme that an independent candidate for president could succeed — or even run a respectable campaign.

Virginia's experience in 2011 will be instructive for 2012. The pundits should look here before they unrealistically rave about an elusive "third-party moment."