Better measures mean a greater Richmond

Earlier this year, two studies were done for Richmond's Future, the nonprofit think tank that was set up in the fall of 2010. Both compared the Richmond MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) made up of 16 counties and four cities, with 10 other similarly-sized cities: Austin, Birmingham, Buffalo, Hartford, Jacksonville, Louisville, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Raleigh and Salt Lake City.

It is appropriate to compare these MSAs with the Richmond MSA, which includes Richmond, Colonial Heights, Hopewell and Petersburg, as well as counties from Louisa and Caroline in the north to Dinwiddie and Sussex in the south, and from Cumberland and Amelia in the west to King and Queen and New Kent in the east, because this is how the federal government defines the Richmond Metropolitan Area, and this MSA is really one economic area.

The two studies were "Benchmarking the Richmond Metropolitan Area" by Ann Battle Macheras, vice president, regional research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and "Socio-Demographic Trends of Richmond and Its Peer Metropolitan Areas" by Michela Zonta, assistant professor at the Wilder School, Virginia Commonwealth University.

Both studies showed interesting results.

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Macheras' study examined population, employment, per capita income, gross domestic product, educational statistics and occupation mix.

The Richmond MSA ranked:

• fifth out of 11 in population, at 1,258,251;

• third in total employment;

• sixth in real GDP;

• second in per capita personal income;

• fourth in median home sales price;

• fifth in annual population growth;

• sixth in annual employment growth; and

• ninth in per capita personal income growth.

Macheras quoted Edward Glaeser and Albert Saiz from "The Rise of the Skilled City" (2004), showing that a key ingredient in any positive population growth is human capital: "Between 1980 and 2000, the population of metropolitan areas where less than 10 percent of adults had college degrees in 1980, grew in average by 13 percent. Among metropolitan areas where more than 25 percent of adults had college degrees, the average population growth rate was 45 percent."

Then Macheras' study noted that while the Richmond MSA ranked fourth of 11 in terms of percentage of population over age 25 with at least a bachelor's degree — at 31.4 percent — the Richmond MSA fell to 10th of 11 when ranked by population over 25 with at least a high school degree or equivalent — at 85.4 percent. Only Memphis had a lower percentage.

Her study concluded with an analysis of occupation areas per 1,000 population. Richmond ranked fourth in terms of computer-related jobs, fifth in science and sixth in health care, but fell all the way to ninth in jobs in the production area. All in all, the Richmond MSA looked competitive in Macheras' study.

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Zonta's analysis of the 2010 census is also fascinating. We were fifth in population in 2010, up from seventh in 2000, with the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico and Chesterfield being the most populous components of the MSA.

The Richmond MSA had increasing numbers of foreign-born population in 2010, though we ranked seventh of the 11 MSAs. The Richmond MSA white population declined from 64 percent in 2000 to 60 percent in 2010, with the African-American population staying at 30 percent, while the Hispanic population went from 2 percent in 2000 to 5 percent in 2010.

The Richmond MSA had a growing proportion of its population living below the federal poverty line, ranking eighth of the 11 MSAs, and the percentage of children in poverty grew from 33 percent to 35 percent in the city of Richmond.

These are interesting studies, and they tell us a lot about our MSA. They show that we compare favorably in many areas, but in poverty rates and high school graduation rates we lag behind.

The two studies are available on Richmond's Future's website, www.richmondfuture.org.

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The problem with these studies is that they are one-off — done at a particular time with no point of comparison over time. In that way, another interesting study is "2010 Regional Economic Scoreboard," produced by the Charleston Regional Development Alliance, which compares Charleston, S.C., and Richmond with seven other MSAs.

But we need more. What we really need is regularly collected data across a whole series of fields that will enable us to compare our 16 counties and four cities, locality by locality, on an annual basis.

The best example for us to look at is the Boston Indicators Project, www.bostonindicators.org.

Now 5 years old, the Boston Indicators collect data annually for the 101 cities and towns in eastern Massachusetts, and for a population of more than 3 million.

Data is collected in the following 10 areas: economy, education, environment, housing, health, public safety, technology, transportation, civic vitality and cultural life, through 70 indicator goals and 150 individual measures.

Funded with a 30-year commitment from the Boston Foundation, it is allowing the emergence of a Greater Boston civic agenda that is based on data-driven strategies "to align resources and move the region forward."

Studies on such topics as "21st Century Jobs and Economic Strategies," "Employment Change by Industry Sector" and "21st Century Infrastructure and Sustainability" are now possible for the entire Boston MSA, which allows the community, political and business leaders of Boston to plan next steps in a rational, data-driven method.

It also allows Boston to plan and measure new initiatives that will be accomplished between now and 2030, Boston's 400th Anniversary. The Boston Indicators Project, with its motto "Measuring what we value — a project of Boston's civic community," is a well-structured tool for rational civic involvement in planning the future of the Boston MSA.

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We from the Richmond MSA should look carefully at the Boston Indicators Project. An early opportunity will be the Greater Richmond Chamber's Intercity Visit to Boston in mid-April. The Indicators Project and its influence on decision-making in the Boston MSA should be a major point of this visit to Boston.

Perhaps, after that, with support of the philanthropic community of Richmond, we can duplicate this project and be on our way to long-term data-driven decisions across the whole MSA.

What do you think?