Central Virginia enjoyed a 6.2 percent drop in major crime last year, continuing a trend of annual declines in violent crime and property crime that reflects the national figures.
A total of 34,951 major offenses were reported last year in the 25 localities that make up the greater metropolitan region, down from 37,270 the year before, according to a Richmond Times-Dispatch analysis of state police data.
The decline in crime, combined with an overall population increase, caused the region's per capita crime rate to fall from 30 crimes per 1,000 residents in 2009 to 28 crimes per 1,000 residents last year. That is the region's lowest crime rate in at least five years.
A 22 percent increase in homicides and a 6 percent rise in arsons were offset by drops in aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft. The number of rapes remained even across central Virginia.
The Richmond region's most dramatic major-crime declines occurred in the categories of auto theft, down 18 percent, and robbery, down 14 percent.
Violent crime, which includes murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault, dipped 7.2 percent in central Virginia. By comparison, the state as a whole saw a more modest decrease of 4.9 percent.
The Richmond region's drop in violent crime also surpassed the nationwide decrease of 5.5 percent, according to preliminary figures released last week by the FBI, which uses data compiled by the states.
Property crimes — burglary, larceny, auto theft and arson — decreased by 6.1 percent in central Virginia.
John D. Reitzel, an assistant professor of criminal justice at Virginia Commonwealth University, said many observers would not have predicted consistent annual crime declines in a tough economy. But he said there appears to be no direct correlation between crime and unemployment.
"People just don't necessarily turn to crime," Reitzel said. "It's not just like people are going to go out and start raping and pillaging just because they lost their job."
Another criminologist, Jay S. Albanese, a professor of criminal justice at VCU, suggested that the aging of the American population could be driving decreases in street-level crime. Older offenders, he said, are less disposed toward violent crime.
Crime in Richmond, where the largest number of major crimes was reported, remained relatively steady in 2010. According to the Times-Dispatch's analysis, major crime in Richmond increased by less than 1 percent. However, the Richmond Police Department says major crime was down 1 percent.
Such figures can vary because the Virginia State Police figures represent a snapshot at one particular time that would not reflect later modifications made by local law-enforcement agencies, said Norman Westerberg, manager of uniform crime reporting for the state police. For example, a police department might later determine that certain reported offenses were unfounded and subtract them from their totals.
Most notably in Richmond, the number of violent crimes in 2010 was the lowest annual total since at least 1970, according to Police Department figures. And the city recorded fewer robberies than it had in any year since at least 1985. That historic low followed a 9 percent increase in robberies in 2009.
Richmond police officials declined to discuss the 2010 statistics.
Richmond Commonwealth's Attorney Michael N. Herring said efforts by law enforcement to target violent drug dealers and other offenders likely have contributed to the decline in violent crime, but he noted that violent crime has been decreasing across the country.
"It would be odd for any agency or person to jump up and take credit for it if it's happening generally," he said.
Referring to the Richmond police statistics on violent crime, Herring added, "I think it's statistically accurate, and I think it's something we can celebrate. But I don't know that we can bottle the prescription to do it year after year. It's more complicated than that."
Herring noted that burglaries saw a double-digit increase in Richmond and larcenies increased slightly. "I knew that we were seeing a spike around the city in burglaries," he said. "I'm relieved that we're seeing fewer robberies."
Central Virginia's two most-populous jurisdictions, Henrico and Chesterfield counties, saw decreases in major crime of 9 percent and 7 percent last year, respectively. Hanover County had a 10 percent drop.
In Chesterfield, homicides and rapes increased, but every other category of major crime dropped. Police Capt. Kevin Smith attributed the overall decrease, in part, to more effective targeting of crime hot spots and increased traffic enforcement.
Chesterfield police stopped 13,714 more vehicles in 2010 than the year before — an increase of 21 percent. The county's efforts to improve traffic safety, Smith said, also can lead to arrests of wanted individuals and arrests on drug and firearm charges.
"The biggest threat to you in Chesterfield, we've always believed, is behind the wheel of a car as opposed to random violence," Smith said. "And we believe that targeting traffic violators also has a dual effect on criminal activity."
In Hopewell, major crime rose 20 percent last year. The city also ranked as central Virginia's most dangerous place to live in terms of the number of major crimes for its size, with 58 offenses per 1,000 residents in 2010, surpassing Petersburg, which ranked second in per capita crime with 52 offenses per 1,000 people. Richmond was third with 50 offenses per 1,000 residents.
The safest county was Cumberland, with six major crimes per 1,000 people.
John Keohane, a former Richmond police major who became Hopewell's chief one month ago, said he is focused on tough drug enforcement and on identifying troubled areas and applying additional resources to those places. He also is seeking to prevent retaliation when violent offenses occur.
"They really haven't had a good, strong focus on dealing with quality-of-life issues," Keohane said. He said he will emphasize "getting the drug dealers and even the users of drugs off the street and prosecuted."
Petersburg reported a 33 percent drop in violent crime in 2010, the region's most dramatic decrease. The city's police chief, John Dixon, another former Richmond police official, attributed the decline to a system that holds supervisors accountable for crime numbers in each of the city's two precincts.
Nationwide, the FBI's preliminary figures suggest that fewer violent crimes occurred last year in the United States than in any year in more than 30 years, leaving law-enforcement officials and criminologists at a loss at how to explain the declines.
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