A new study by Chmura Economics & Analytics, a widely respected forecasting firm, says lifting the state's ban on uranium mining could yield up to 1,000 jobs and nearly $5 billion over the next three-and-a-half decades.
The figures should not be lightly dismissed – especially by those who found nothing to doubt in Washington's glowing estimates of the effects from the federal stimulus bill. Nevertheless, some mining opponents already have brushed aside the Chmura report – or said its nod toward the environmental effects of uranium mining prove they were right all along.
The reaction shows two things: that some mining opponents are not interested in facts inconvenient to their view, and that mining faces steep hurdles no matter what any technical analysis finds. The National Academies of Science will soon release a report on the health and environmental effects of uranium mining in Virginia. If the study raises serious concerns, then uranium mining is probably doomed. But even a study that says there is nothing to fear would not settle the issue – because opponents would simply dismiss it, too.
It seems likely that the NAS study will convey neither absolute approval nor absolute rejection, but rather nuance and ambiguity – two things that have sometimes been missing from a debate dominated so far by cheerleaders on one side and alarmists on the other. To their credit, many of the state's political leaders have largely withheld judgment pending further results. So should Virginians in general.
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