The Chesapeake Bay is showing signs of improvement but remains in critical condition because of pollution, according to a report by the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.
The comeback of the blue crab population is perhaps the most dramatic improvement in the group's State of the Bay snapshot. The bay's crab population more than doubled from 120 million adult crabs in 2008 to 315 million in 2010.
"What this report shows is good news and bad news," William C. Baker, president of the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, said in a telephone interview. "The bay is getting better, but as a system it's still dangerously out of balance."
Baker said that while "there are certainly signs that it's going in the right direction," the gains are "modest, incremental and fragile." The concern now is that "modest good news could lead to some relaxation of what prompted the improvement."
Overall, the bay has improved in eight of 13 indicators of its health. Rankings dropped in two categories and were unchanged in three others.
The Chesapeake Bay Foundation compares the bay with the pristine incarnation that John Smith encountered in 1607. The bay then rated a theoretical 100, which the foundation no longer considers possible. On the foundation's rating scale, 70 would be an A+. In 2010, the bay rates a 31, which is a D+.
Baker said the comeback for blue crabs reflects a model for improving the bay. Then-Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley "listened to the scientists," and in 2008 they implemented restrictions on the catching of female crabs.
The protection of female crabs boosted reproduction. As a result, the bay's number of juvenile crabs jumped to 343 million in 2010, after falling below 250 million in the previous dozen years.
For more than two decades, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency repeatedly has promised to clean up the bay. Under an agreement announced in May, the EPA is legally bound to act. The agreement settled a lawsuit that the Chesapeake Bay Foundation filed against the EPA in January 2009.
This week the EPA is expected to release its bay-cleanup plan. Virginia and five other bay states submitted their own plans to the EPA last month.
Virginia's plan relies largely on providing financial incentives for farmers to reduce pollution voluntarily. Among other things, the Virginia plan calls for cutting pollution from sewage-treatment plants in the James River watershed. The plan also calls for expanding a program that allows polluters, in effect, to buy and sell the right to pollute.
"Our plan charts out significant and far-reaching actions, and it offers realistic, balanced and cost-effective solutions to our water-quality concerns," said Doug Domenech, Gov. Bob McDonnell's secretary of natural resources.
The bay foundation has said that Virginia's proposal does not go far enough.
But as for the overall effort to clean the bay, Baker said: "We're guardedly optimistic that this time it might be for real."
acain@timesdispatch.com
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