Poll shows 2012 presidential and U.S. Senate races in Va. as toss-ups

Next year's presidential race and U.S. Senate battle in Virginia are both toss-ups, a new poll shows.

In a hypothetical matchup against an unnamed Republican nominee, President Barack Obama leads 43-41 in Virginia, according to the Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. That advantage is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

In 2008, Obama received 52.6 percent of the vote in Virginia compared with 46.3 percent for Republican candidate John McCain.

For the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Jim Webb, D-Va., the potential clash of former governors between Democrat Timothy M. Kaine and Republican George Allen is also a virtual tie.

The poll shows Kaine at 43 percent and Allen at 42 percent, with independent voters favoring Allen 46 percent to 38 percent.

The numbers essentially mirror other recent polls showing Allen and Kaine running neck-and-neck.

"These political figures — Allen, Kaine and Obama — are already too well-defined to be massaged very much, even with the expenditure of tens of millions of dollars," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

"It's a polarizing election, and not just because of Allen and Kaine, but because of Obama," he added. "And it's very unlikely to change through Election Day."

Sabato said the only wild card could be a non-mainstream Republican presidential candidate, like Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.

"Then, I think Allen would be in deep trouble," he said, "because it would depress Republican turnout. There's no way she could get the slice of moderate Republicans she needs to win."

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, also noted that one in 10 Virginia voters remains undecided on the Senate race.

"Those are the folks who will decide the identity of Virginia's next U.S. senator," he said.

In 2008, Obama became the first Democratic nominee to capture Virginia's electoral votes since President Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Like Kaine, Obama lacks mojo among independents, the poll shows, with 35 percent saying they would vote for him compared with 41 percent who would support an unnamed Republican nominee.

Virginia's voters do not register by political party. A CNN exit poll from the November 2008 presidential election showed that 27 percent of the sample of 2,466 Virginia voters described themselves as independents. Of that subset, 49 percent voted for Obama compared with 48 percent for McCain.

Sabato suggested the numbers for independents meant little.

"Every good voter story for two decades has shown that most 'independents' are in fact hidden partisans; that is, they almost always vote for one party but like calling themselves independents," he said.

The poll also shows Obama with identical 48 percent approval and disapproval ratings in Virginia. Voters are also evenly split on whether he deserves re-election, at 47 percent.

And while 74 percent of Virginians said they like the president personally, only 47 percent approve of his policies, while 48 percent do not. In fact, a majority of Virginia voters oppose U.S. involvement in both Libya and Afghanistan and support a repeal of the health-care law passed last year.

Nearly half of those polled supported a full repeal of the health-care law (49 percent), while 42 percent did not.

The conflict in Afghanistan was even less popular, with 55 percent of those polled saying the U.S. should not be involved compared with 38 percent who support the war. A full 60 percent of voters oppose U.S. involvement in Libya, with only 31 percent in support.

Virginia's two Democratic U.S. senators both enjoy relatively high job-approval ratings, the poll shows, with Sen. Mark R. Warner at 57 percent and Webb at 50 percent.

The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 1,434 registered voters from June 21 to 27.