Poll shows apathy about legislative elections

A vast majority of Virginia voters really don't care much about the upcoming General Assembly elections, according to a new Christopher Newport University/Richmond Times-Dispatch poll.

More than 70 percent of voters surveyed said they are paying little (60.3 percent) to no (10.1 percent) attention to the looming November elections in which every seat in the legislature will be decided.

Only 13.5 percent of respondents said they care "quite a lot," and 14.1 percent said they only care "some."

Debra Gwathmey, a Mechanicsville resident who took part in the poll, said she is among the majority who have little interest, largely because she's grown disillusioned with the state of modern politics.

"I'm just probably like a lot of people and feel like we need some independents or some neutrality between the two parties," said Gwathmey, who typically votes Republican. "It's left and right, there's no middle, and it really doesn't matter anyway because what everybody says to get elected doesn't end up happening."

Part of the general disinterest might be attributed to the fact that 77 of the 140 seats up for grabs are uncontested. Also at play is the fact that this year's redistricting process left many residents unsure of whom their representatives are. One-third of Virginia residents, for example, are in new House districts.

Even in a good year, assembly elections are low-turnout affairs. Two years ago, only 30 percent of registered voters showed up at the polls.

Republicans this year are more engaged, the poll showed, with 32.2 percent saying they care a lot or at least some, compared with 23.5 percent among Democrats. That's good news for the state GOP, which is seeking to take over the Senate, Democrats' last bastion of power at the Capitol.

Democrats hold 22 seats in the Senate to Republicans' 18. Republicans hold a comfortable majority in the House of Delegates, with 59 seats and Democrats 39. Two independents organize with the GOP.

Geographically, there's considerably more interest in assembly elections in the Richmond area, Southside and Southwest Virginia than in Northern Virginia, where most news is dominated by national politics, and Hampton Roads, with a large military population.

Who are these people?

State legislators aren't the only people a majority of Virginians aren't familiar with, or don't care about.

Asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-7th, almost half (45.8 percent) of those polled have no opinion or don't know him. Of those who do, 28.5 percent see him favorably to 25.8 percent who do not.

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican running for governor in 2013, is well-liked by those who know him with a 23.4 percent favorable rating compared with an 8.4 percent unfavorable mark, but 69.1 percent of those polled have no opinion.

Terry McAuliffe, who sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2009 and may do so again in 2013, is unknown by 67 percent of those polled. Of those who do know McAuliffe, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, 14.7 percent see him favorably compared with 18.2 percent who do not.

And Republican U.S. Senate candidate Jamie Radtke, a Chesterfield County resident and former chairwoman of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Federation, is viewed favorably (8.9 percent to 7 percent), but 84 percent of those surveyed don't know her.

Senate race a squeaker

Among the 2012 U.S. Senate candidates whom voters do know — former Govs. George Allen, a Republican, and Timothy M. Kaine, a Democrat — both are fairly popular.

Allen is seen favorably by 51 percent of those polled and unfavorably by 26.2 percent. Kaine is seen favorably by 52 percent compared with 31 percent unfavorable.

And like every other poll released for months, the CNU survey shows the race — which will be one of the tightest and highest-profile Senate contests in the nation — as a toss-up between Kaine and Allen. Kaine has 43.9 percent to Allen's 41.5 percent, a difference within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

If Radtke were to win the GOP nomination over Allen, she has the support of 31.6 percent of those polled, compared with Kaine's 45.8 percent.

Virginians for Romney?

While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney can't seem to break 25 percent in any national polls of GOP presidential hopefuls, the CNU poll finds 43.8 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Virginia favor him for the nomination.

In a far distant second is former Godfather's Pizza chief executive Herman Cain at 11.7 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 10.2 percent.

That's a far cry from a Quinnipiac University poll released last week showing Cain and Romney locked at 21 percent among GOP voters in the state.

Quentin Kidd, a Christopher Newport University political scientist who designed the poll, chalks up the difference to the question's wording.

While most polls ask respondents for whom they would vote if the primary were held today, the CNU poll asked which candidate voters are "leaning toward."

"I'm not tapping into who they say they're going to vote for today, I'm tapping into who they would most like to see nominated," he said, suggesting Romney is viewed as the most likely nominee and the best matchup against the president in a general election.

Kidd suggested that part of Cain's popularity in other polls might be his selection as a "protest vote" among a GOP base not quite content with their options or ready to make up their minds.

And while the Quinnipiac poll and others accept an undecided response right away, CNU callers pushed for a response. Only 14.3 percent of the CNU respondents were undecided, compared with 20 percent in the Quinnipiac poll.

Rough road for Obama

As other recent polls have shown, President Barack Obama is struggling in Virginia, a swing state he won in 2008.

Among those polled, 51.5 percent disapprove of the way the president is handling his job to 44.2 percent who approve.

In a matchup with a generic GOP nominee, Obama loses, 46.2 percent to 39.8 percent.

If Romney were the nominee, Obama trails 45.8 percent to 42.3 percent. The president is in a statistical tie with Perry, the poll shows, with Perry at 43 percent and Obama at 42.7 percent.

Frank Benenati, regional press secretary for Obama's 2012 campaign, suggested that those numbers won't last long.

"The president has been fighting to create jobs now and for a fairer economy that restores middle-class security," he said.

"As Virginians learn more about the Republican candidates' plans, they'll come to learn about their very different vision, one that would provide tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires and large corporations and allow Wall Street to write its own rules."