Va. jobless rate unchanged

Virginia's jobless rate remained steady from March to April, but economists say it's too early to celebrate the end of the recession.

While the nation's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 8.9 percent in April, Virginia's stayed at 6.8 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Even though the unemployment rate was unchanged in Virginia, the underlying numbers show that the economy is still contracting," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "We still have 4,000 more people unemployed."

Layoffs continued in Virginia in April, but the labor force also grew to 4.17 million, up 189,000, according to BLS data.

The subtractions and additions equaled out.

"Basically you got some layoffs in April . . . but then had some people go to work," said William F. Mezger, chief economist for the Virginia Employment Commission.

"I don't think the recession is over by any means," he added.

Nationwide, 44 states, including Virginia, and the District of Columbia lost jobs in April. California was hit worst with 63,700 jobs lost.

As for the unemployment rate, 21 states saw decreases between March and April; 18 states saw increases. In 11 states, the rate did not change.

Michigan, with an unemployment rate of 12.9 percent, had the highest jobless rate in the nation. At 4 percent, North Dakota had the lowest rate, according to the BLS data.

Virginia has the 15th-lowest jobless rate, Mezger said.

"This is actually good news," said Jay Schwartz, president of the Henrico County-based staffing and searching firm Richmond Group USA.

Schwartz said it could mean the recession has ended or the stimulus money is taking effect. "You can't spend that much money and not have an impact," he said.

Mezger expects the unemployment rate to increase in May and June when high school and college students begin looking for work, along with the 284,000 other unemployed people in the state.

"At this point, it doesn't look like it's going to be a particularly good year for summer graduates and seasonal employment," he said.

Economists expect the recession to end either in the fourth quarter of this year or in the first three months of 2010. Even then, it will take awhile for unemployment rates to go down.

Businesses, until they are sure of a recovery, may opt for temporary workers. Schwartz said that's when calls for contract employees may increase.

"Employers don't want to hire people until they're convinced they'll have enough demand to keep that person on the payroll," Chmura said. "It's easier to pick up those people and let them go."

Contact Emily C. Dooley at (804) 649-6016 or .