Richmond ranks in middle of recession-impact survey

The Richmond region lands in the middle when compared with how the country's 100 largest metro areas are faring during the recession, a new study says.

No one area feels the economic downturn the same way as others, according to MetroMonitor, a new quarterly study published by the Brookings Institution in Washington that will track the recession and recovery.

"In some respects, there is no national economy as people experience it on the ground," said Alan Berube, research director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings.

Areas that saw explosive housing growth and speculative lending before the downturn are faring worse than those that did not. Regions relying on manufacturing, particularly automotive, have felt the pain more than other areas during the first quarter of 2009, the report said.

The production of goods and services was stronger in the Richmond area than in most other parts of the country, but the area has lost more jobs than many other regions.

"The ranking makes sense to me," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "Richmond is the poorest-performing large metropolitan area in the state during this recession."

Metro areas entered into recession at different times, so some data measure from when a region hit a peak in a certain category through the first quarter of this year, Berube said.

"That does give you the full impact of the recession," said Chmura, who was not affiliated with the Brookings study.

Overall, Richmond ranked in the middle 20 of the 100 regions. In specific categories:

• Production of goods and services slowed but not as much as in most U.S. regions. From the peak of Richmond's gross metropolitan product to the end of the first quarter, the region's production fell 0.8 percent, ranking it No. 9 on the list. Two other Virginia metro areas also placed in the top 10 -- Hampton Roads in fifth, Northern Virginia in third.

• From the time of peak employment to the end of the first quarter, Richmond's level fell 3.3 percent, ranking it No. 62 on the list, according to the study.

While all metro areas saw employment losses, Oklahoma City came in at the top of the list with just a 0.2 percent decrease. New Orleans hit bottom, with a 16 percent drop.

Ten of the 15 areas with the biggest employment losses are in California, Florida and Ohio, areas hit hard by the housing crisis and drops in manufacturing, Berube said.

• Housing also took a hit. From the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of this year, Richmond house prices dropped 2.2 percent. The region's rank for housing prices: 53 out of 100.

In Houston, prices rose during that same period by 4.7 percent for the top spot on the list. Stockton, Calif., ranked last with a decline of 30.6 percent.

Contact Emily C. Dooley at (804) 649-6016 or .