533,000 jobs lost in Nov., U.S. reports

An alarming half-million American jobs vanished last month, the worst mass layoffs in over a third of a century, as the nation hurtled toward what could be the hardest hard times since the Great Depression.

Underscoring yesterday's dismaying signs of a rapidly deteriorating economy, General Motors announced yet more job cuts, and a record number of homeowners were reported behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure.

Staring at yesterday's Labor Department report of 533,000 lost jobs in November, economists were anything but hopeful. Since the start of the recession last December, the economy has shed 1.9 million jobs, and the number of unemployed people has increased by 2.7 million -- to 10.3 million now out of work.

Some analysts predict 3 million more jobs will be lost between now and the spring of 2010.

"The economy is in a free fall," said Richard Yamarone of Argus Research. "It is as if someone flicked off the switch on hiring."

The plunge may spur President-elect Barack Obama to come up with an even bigger fiscal stimulus package than economists' projections of about $700 billion. The jobless figures also will add to pressure on the Federal Reserve to take more-radical steps to revive credit markets and on lawmakers to bail out the auto companies.

The financial crisis "is likely to get worse before it gets better," Obama said yesterday, and no one was going to argue that point.

"Most economists are expecting this fourth quarter to be the fastest rate of decline over the recession," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist for Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.

She cautioned that the economy won't hit bottom, though, until the thirdor fourth quarter of next year.

Economists predicted the unemployment rate, which rose to a 15-year high of 6.7 percent in November, could soar as high as 10 percent before skittish employers begin hiring again.

Thomas Mackell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said yesterday the rate may hit 9.2 percent and layoffs likely would stretch into the public sector.

The jobless rate would have bolted to 7 percent for the month if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force for any number of reasons -- going back to school, retiring or abandoning job searches. When people stop looking, they're no longer counted in the unemployment rate.

"You've got more people who are discouraged and not even looking for work," Chmura said. "They don't feel like they can find a job and so they don't even look."

Employment shrank in virtually every part of the economy -- factories, construction companies, financial firms, accounting and bookkeeping, architectural and engineering firms, hotels and motels, food services, retailers, temporary help, transportation, publishing, janitorial and building maintenance, and even waste management.

"I didn't expect the [employment numbers] to be that large, although given the way consumers have pulled back their spending, I'm not surprised that businesses are being proactive and cutting back," Chmura said.

The United States may not come out of the recession until the spring of 2010, making for the longest downturn since the Great Depression. Recessions since the Depression have lasted from six to 16 months.

The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8 percent in 1982 -- terrible, but still a far cry from the Depression, when roughly 25 percent of Americans were out of work.

That is little solace for Gary Cope, who lost his communications job this week at the high-tech research and development company Luna Innovations Inc. in Roanoke.

As Cope, 33, walked out the door with a box of his belongings and about two months' severance, all he could think was, "I have a 3-year-old son and I'm a single dad."

"I came home and did my initial pity party, then I got myself together, talked to my family and went right to work" rewriting his résumé and sending it out, Cope said.
Staff writer Emily C. Dooley, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News contributed to this report.