A look at the numbers, outlook for employment

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Losing a job is, to say the least, difficult. Receiving severance or unemployment insurance helps pay the bills, but the mental anguish and uncertainty about finding a new job can be hard to overcome. Typically, the unemployment rate increases during a recession, though unemployment remains an issue even during times of economic expansion.

Younger workers along with the least-educated almost always hold the highest rankings in the U.S. unemployment rate.

Over the past decade, the unemployment rate for individuals 16 to 19 averaged 16.2 percent, compared with 5.2 percent for the entire work force. In June, unemployment rates were 24 percent for the teenagers and 9.5 percent for the work force as a whole.

The unemployment rate for workers 25 or older with less education than a high school diploma jumped to 15.5 percent in June, compared with 8.9 percent a year ago. Unemployment for high school graduates almost doubled as well over the past year, moving to 8 percent from 4.4 percent. (College graduates, however, were still looking at a somewhat low unemployment rate of 4.7 percent in June, compared with 2.4 percent a year ago.)

During these difficult times, many young individuals likely will take jobs that require less skill than they have based on their education. Those who have the financial wherewithal to work without pay may find it beneficial to gain experience while still searching for a job.

Based on unemployment statistics, if everyone obtains at least a college education, there will be less unemployment. Theoretically that seems correct, but practically it can't happen. Aptitude and interest play a role. An office setting is not for everyone. Some people prefer occupations that do not require a college education, such as working on cars, renovating furniture or homes, or cooking.

Equally important is the fact that many businesses need good workers who are not college-degreed. Based on the current mix of industries in Virginia, for example, about half the jobs in Virginia require only shortor moderate-term on-the-job training that may include an additional certification along with a high school degree. Truck drivers, sales representatives, welders and child-care workers are among the occupations in demand -- some of these jobs pay an average $60,000 a year.

By contrast, only about 23 percent of the jobs in Virginia require a bachelor's degree or greater. And some of them, such as athletic trainers and social-services specialists, earn a wage of less than $50,000 a year.

The best solution for Virginia is to have a strong economic-development plan that is underpinned with a highly skilled, highly qualified work force and an infrastructure that is committed to lifelong learning.

Looking to the next 10 years in Virginia, the fastest-growing jobs will be those requiring an associate degree -- 2.5 percent a year, compared with a 1.9 percent growth rate, for example, for jobs needing a master's degree.

How can a student or job-seeker learn about growth occupations in Virginia? If you're looking for employment now, go to http://www.richmondjobnet.com and sign up for the Career Concourse, where you can find job openings in the Richmond metro area that match your skills.

If you are considering a degree that will lead to employment, go to http://www.vawizard.org and click on the careers tab. Once you've identified a career, you can use the site to apply for scholarships and determine the costs of attending a community college versus a four-year institution, as well as what jobs are critical in your hometown.

Hang in there. This recession will end and job opportunities will expand once again.

Consider your skills and the in-demand occupations that need those skills in your community. Be flexible in the short run, knowing that we are all moving along a path of learning over time.


Christine Chmura is president and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics. Contact her at (804) 649-3640 or .

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