SCHAPIRO: A broken formula in GOP ticket?

In his "Brady Bunch" ad, Bob McDonnell, sitting on the front stoop of his house in the Henrico suburbs, is typecast.

The message -- as the Republican gubernatorial nominee and unflappable pater familias of a vast, bubbly clan is, among other things, fleeced for car keys by his twin sons -- is that McDonnell is the friendly, sort of dull everyguy.

And he is.

That reality was on full display at the Republican convention in Richmond last weekend. So, too, was another: McDonnell's firm conservatism, and that of his running mates, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, the pick for attorney general.

For a party in almost nonstop retreat since 2001, the Virginia GOP shows no sign of retreating from the well-right-of-center orthodoxy that has left it defensive and depleted its bench.

Why would the party stick with a losing formula? Because the rank-and-file demands it, and because there is genuine optimism McDonnell can win despite it.

That is rooted in the notion that the Democratic candidates are too liberal, too unrefined or too brash. That against any of them, McDonnell -- having already been elected attorney general -- is a proven quantity, steady and nonthreatening.

And don't underestimate the potential impact of national politics.

State Republicans hope they benefit from pushback to President Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress, particularly if the spend-spend-spend approach to jump-starting the economy yields nothingnothing-nothing.

Also, that McDonnell, with his TV anchorman hair, chiseled features and fondness for George W. Bush-blue neckties, embodies the desired balance of candidate presence and committed philosophy.

The previous two Republican nominees, Mark Earley and Jerry Kilgore, both former attorneys general, knew which hot buttons to hit. But neither had the bearing of a would-be governor. Earley seemed sluggish and uninterested; Kilgore, shy and nervous.

Those weaknesses were in sharp focus once Virginians fully understood their choices. But at this point, who's the alternative to Bob McDonnell? Not only must candidates manage their own profiles, they must manipulate the other guy's.

And therein lies the intersection of issues and image.

McDonnell will spend a lot oftime and money communicating ways to improve the economy. But he will have to reconcile that with a record and rhetoric that could raise doubts about his capacity to do so.

For instance, McDonnell unsuccessfully defended in the Virginia Supreme Court a Rube Goldberg-esque road-and-rail fix that is a reminder to business that Republicans, particularly in the House whence McDonnell came, are anything but business.

Further, McDonnell has yet to establish his fiscal bona fides or pair them with a program he proposes financing with an uncertain promise.

McDonnell, a committed anti-taxer, vows efficiencies in transportation and education -- translation: cuts -- and envisions paying for these services with royalties from offshore oil and gas exploration.

Problem is: Wells, if there ever are any, probably won't be up and running until after McDonnell retires -- voluntarily, involuntarily? -- to his front stoop.

Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 6496814 or . Watch his video column Thursdays on TimesDispatch.com. Listen to his analysis Fridays at 8:33 a.m. on WCVE (88.9 FM).