Election’s big story: the Senate?

Forget about the governor's election and down-ticket races. The battle for the House? Practically a nonevent. The real action may be in the Virginia Senate, even though it's not up until 2011.

Should Republicans sweep statewide, Ken Cuccinelli, as the next attorney general, would have to quit his Senate seat in heavily Democratic Fairfax. That should be a pickup for the D's, expanding their caucus to 22 of 40 seats and giving Majority Leader Dick Saslaw some breathing room. Or would it?

There are multiple post-Nov. 3 scenarios for the Senate, of which only one would seem reasonably certain: a special election in Virginia Beach for the seat of Republican Ken Stolle. He's favored to win a contest there for sheriff.

Assuming she loses for lieutenant governor but is competitive in Stolle's district, Democrat Jody Wagner could stand for the seat. Expect no shortage of Republican candidates, particularly if Virginia Beach homeboy Bob McDonnell is governor.

There could be two other special elections. Republican Robert Hurt may shift to Congress, but his Southside seat would seem a GOP keeper. Democrat John Edwards is after a judgeship again -- this time, the state Supreme Court. He's a very long shot, but his Roanoke Senate seat wouldn't be one for Republicans.

Should Cuccinelli lose to Steve Shannon and have to cool his heels as a legislator, a different dynamic could unfold in the Senate -- the political equivalent of a leveraged buyout.

With Bill Bolling re-elected LG and the House under perhaps-fortified Republican control, McDonnell may be emboldened to tip the Senate to the R's by enticing Democrats with high-paying administration jobs.

That's what Gov. Jim Gilmore did in 1998. He lured Charlie Waddell with an appointment as deputy secretary of transportation. The Loudoun Democrat bit, and Bill Mims, a McDonnell buddy completing his term as AG, snapped up the seat. Down went the Senate.

But in 2008, which Democrats might take the bait, and would they?

It's a gamble that might yield only a single seat for McDonnell, meaning the Senate would split 20-20, with Bolling as tiebreaker. It's a great story, fraught with constitutional and procedural complications that would further poison the atmosphere at the state Capitol.

It also would blow to smithereens McDonnell's promise of bipartisanship. How could he claim to reach across the aisle when, instead, he's moving it?

The prospect has been discussed by Democrats. They apparently are prepared to stick together. Beyond solidarity -- the Senate could become the party's lone redoubt of power in Richmond -- there are practical reasons for doing so.

With dollars scarce, who wants a high-profile executive appointment that would require saying no to spending? Even Republicans enjoy throwing money at the electorate. Why not ride out hard times in the comparatively anonymous confines of the General Assembly?

There's also 2011 redistricting, a decennial exercise in political Darwinism. It's easier to hold a seat when you're in it, even with a Republican governor who could use his veto pen to draw an adversary into extinction.

Besides, with retirements, Republicans may have territory to defend. If Obama's numbers only stay in the tank . . .
Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 6496814 or . Watch his video column Thursdays on TimesDispatch.com. Follow him at twitter.com/RTDSchapiro. Listen to his analysis Fridays at 8:33 a.m. on WCVE (88.9 FM).