Kaine’s tax plan: hazy forecast

Republican legislators are throwing everything but their shoes at Tim Kaine's budget-balancing plan.

It includes a proposal that, depending on your perspective, brings out the best or worst in GOP delegates and senators: new taxes on a favored industry, Big Tobacco.

Kaine, who since he was sworn in as governor in 2006 has proposed higher taxes with the frequency of a chain smoker who insists he's swearing off the habit, gave Republicans -- so they believe -- an early Christmas present: something to run against in next November's House and gubernatorial elections.

But could continued economic erosion and its consequences for state government force Republicans -- and Democrats -- to adopt counterintuitive solutions, not just for stabilizing the budget but for strengthening the budget process?

. . .

On Kaine's proposal to double the cigarette tax from 30 cents to 60 cents per pack, to close a hole in Medicaid health-care programs for the poor and aged, it's a good bet that House Republicans in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads could go along with it.

In these anti-tobacco hotbeds, the tax-increase-as-jobs-killer argument has all the appeal of secondhand smoke. GOP delegates in Fairfax and Virginia Beach might easily explain a vote for this tax as a reflection of the sensibilities of the booming, come-here dominated suburbs where Republicans are on the run.

But they won't get that chance if the House GOP Caucus, which has burned through more than its share of the $5.9 million that the tobacco industry has stuffed into Democratic and Republican campaigns since 1996, commands members to oppose higher taxes on butts simply because they're higher taxes.

Last year, such compulsory group-think by House Republicans -- they're supposed to be legislators, not lemmings -- helped kill Kaine-proposed restrictions on smoking in public.

. . .

The confusing contortions of the economy notwithstanding, Kaine's continuing inability to pin down the size of the budget shortfall -- it's now $2.9 billion and could climb higher -- perhaps argues for a new approach to revenue-forecasting.

Currently, this task falls entirely to the executive branch.

The governor relies on professional prognosticators hired by the state as well as political appointees; specifically, business executives, economists, investment experts, academics and big-dollar donors. They make up two advisory boards, one of which includes top lawmakers.

Over the years, the General Assembly has batted around the idea of birthing its own forecasting agency, akin to the Congressional Budget Office. The absence of such a department isn't stopping the House and Senate from making predictions on the latest cash gap.

However, it's largely guesswork by the indefatigable staffs of the Appropriations and Finance committees that has led the House to settle on $3.5 billion; the Senate, $3.2 billion.

Perhaps this is an oversimplification, but further professionalizing fiscal expertise within the legislature could put the General Assembly and governor's office on a more equal footing.

And promote informed decision-making.

Don't get your hopes up.
Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 6496814 or . Watch his video column Thursdays on inRich.com. Listen to his analysis Fridays at 8:33 a.m. on WCVE radio (88.9 FM).