Economy may take mild hit from swine flu

Swine flu is especially risky for people with chronic illnesses, and it's not the greatest news for an economy still trying to shake off recession.

But because of who the H1N1 virus targets -- children and young adults -- it may not hit the economy quite as hard as flu bugs have in years past.

The flu attacks the economy the same way it attacks business, by keeping people home from their jobs.

So far, H1N1 seems to spread fast but not make people too sick -- with tragic exceptions, such as an Amelia County first-grader who died last week. Though more than 1,000 have died from H1N1 so far this year, a typical flu season claims 36,000 lives.

While parents have to stay home to care for their ill offspring, they account for only part of the nation's work force, said Ross Hammond, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"There is a lot of uncertainty still, but in terms of the economy the effect may be pretty mild," he said.

In dollars-and-cents terms, the productivity of companies suffers during flu outbreaks when employees are home sick, said Volker Grzimek, an economics professor at the University of Richmond.

Also, when people are sick at home, they don't go to the store as often, he said.

"Sure the H1N1 could have an impact on the economic recovery, but I think the effect will be at most be a medium-term delay of the recovery," Grzimek said.

The World Bank estimates that the H1N1 pandemic could cut worldwide economic activity by anywhere from 0.7 percent to 4.8 percent.

The low end would be what happens with a mild virus, like the Hong Kong flu epidemic of 1969. The high end is the kind of impact the 1919 epidemic had, when one in 40 infected people died. Today, that would mean 90 million Americans infected and 2 million dead.

When a parent stays home to care for an ill child, the hit to the economy is likely somewhere between $35 to $157 a week for each ill child, said Hammond at the Brookings Institution.

The $35 figure assumes businesses are able to make up somewhat for a worker's absence, the higher figure assumes every 1 percent drop in the work force means a 1 percent drop in output. If every school in the nation closed for four weeks, economic activity would drop by up to 0.3 percent, he said.

It's not worth panicking, but it is worth planning, said Joan M. Marable, of the Virginia Department of Health.

"If you're a smallor medium-sized business, what happens if your supplier can't supply your raw materials, or if of your five employees, four call in sick?" she said.

Slower-than-expected shipments of H1N1 vaccine are worrying businesses around the nation, a recent Business Roundtable survey found.

"We're hoping to hear more from the states about this," said Carl York, a spokesman for Kroger Co., the supermarket chain.

In the meanwhile, the company is providing disinfectant cloths for customers, so they can wipe down shopping carts. In addition to the hand-cleaning and health rules it already has for employees handling food, it is planning to have hand sanitizer by its time clocks, as employees have suggested, York said.

"We understand our responsibility to the public," he said.

Henrico County-based Altria Group Inc. is also waiting for word on H1N1 vaccine, while going ahead with vaccinations for seasonal flu, said spokesman David Sutton. The company has distributed sanitizer, and is briefing employees on ways to slow the spread of flu, as well.

Dominion Virginia Power has a detailed plan that includes an education program for employees, hand sanitizer in all common areas and beefed-up telecommunications so people can work from home if they have to, spokesman David Botkins said.

"As a company providing an essential service, Dominion knows how important it is to plan comprehensively," he said.

Contact David Ress at (804) 649-6051 or dress @timesdispatch.com.