More National Spotlight For Virginia’s Politicos

-- Virginians absorbed more national political limelight in 2008 than in most of the previous half century combined. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battled for the state's Democratic Convention dele gates in February. In the fall, Obama and sidekick Joe Biden faced off against John McCain and Sarah Palin for the commonwealth's 13 electoral votes.

Obama's primary landslide here was one of several critical victories that allowed him to edge past Clinton for the Democratic nomination. And his comfortable general election win in Virginia, the first for a Democrat since 1964, was widely hailed as proof that the national electorate is changing in dramatic and meaningful ways.

Virginia's importance continued to swell after Election Day, with Rep. Eric Cantor's unanimous election to the No. 2 spot in the House Republican leadership, and President-elect Obama's selection of Gov. Tim Kaine as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Many fellow Virginians may be ready to take a break from big-time national politics. But they're out of luck. Thanks to the Old Dominion's unusual every-year's-an-election-year system -- a bane to some sane citizens, a blessing to those of us who look forward to Election Day with almost as much relish as we do Christmas -- 2009 promises to keep the nation's attention firmly fixed upon our commonwealth.

Virginia's gubernatorial election will offer the first important chance to test many of the conclusions suggested by the surprising and hugely entertaining election of 2008 -- in a state where hints of epochal change were perhaps most apparent.

Has the Old Dominion -- with its hordes of moderate suburbanites and its steadily growing immigrant population -- forever abandoned the GOP and, in particular, the party's conservative stands on social issues? Do Democrats enjoy a permanent grip on today's under-30 crowd, who will of course be voting for a long time to come and -- most likely -- in greater numbers as they age? Will Hispanics become as reliably Democratic in the 21st century as African-Americans have been since Lyndon Johnson passed into law the second great emancipation more than four decades ago?

Virginia will be the first test tube -- or litmus test, if you'd prefer -- for the notion that the Republican Party as constituted here, and across the land, has grown too white, too ideological, too narrow, too inept, too old, and too backwards to attract a majority of voters anywhere except in a shrinking number of states in Appalachia, the Deep South, and the Great Plains -- plus Alaska.

Attorney General Bob McDonnell, barring an unexpected act of God, will be the man who carries the Republican flag onto a suddenly unfamiliar and potentially unforgiving political battlefield. As the GOP candidate for governor, McDonnell must find ways to reassemble a Republican coalition that as recently as four years ago gave George W. Bush 54 percent of the vote in Virginia.

With a military background, a pleasant demeanor, a picture-perfect family, a reputation for civility in his relations with the other party, a solid record in state government, and an articulate speaking style that has been far too rare among Republican candidates of late, McDonnell offers his party a real opportunity to rebound. It doesn't hurt that he faces an unobstructed glide path to the nomination while his three Democratic opponents will be scrapping across the state until a June 9 primary -- or that he boasts an important geographical base in Hampton Roads, the state's second-most populous region.

In 2004, Bush won Virginia by 8.2 percentage points. Obama won by 6.3, an astonishing 14.5-point reversal that is partly explained by a 500,000-vote increase in turnout to 3.7 million last year. But new voters alone do not explain the Republican collapse. Nor does Northern Virginia's move into the solid-blue category.

Obama carried Virginia by 234,000 votes. He won NoVa by about 229,000. So even south of Woodbridge, the president-elect squeaked out a 5,000-vote victory, helped in no small part by a 19,000-vote margin in Henrico.

Third-grade math proves that McDonnell must whittle down Democratic totals in the North while reasserting Republican advantages down South, especially in the suburban counties around Richmond and Hampton Roads.

It's a safe bet that some Democratic voters, who were energized by the thrill of the Obama campaign, will sit out this year's gubernatorial race. But for McDonnell to win, he will clearly have to win back moderate Virginians who have turned out not only for Obama, but also for Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb.

McDonnell, a former delegate from Virginia Beach who was elected attorney general by just 326 votes four years ago, grew up in Northern Virginia. A Catholic, he went to Notre Dame, served in the Army, and -- God bless him -- was even a sales manager for (another) newspaper while working his way through law school. After graduating, he was prosecutor in Virginia Beach, before serving 14 years in the House of Delegates.

Nearly a perfect résumé for a gubernatorial candidate with broad appeal. On the other hand, some will pause for at least one line on that résumé: His law degree came from Regent University, the school founded by televangelist Pat Robertson. McDonnell also has been a strong abortion foe throughout his career. At least a few Republicans worry that he'll be seen as too conservative for Virginia's new swing voters.

Maybe not.

McDonnell need not abandon his pro-life principles. He simply needs to present them as part of a positive and pragmatic philosophy that focuses on limited but effective government. He must become the face of a new Republican Party that values life, protects taxpayers, enforces the law, builds affordable roads, and -- this is important -- welcomes legal immigrants.

The candidate seems to understand this. His campaign Web site stresses his practical accomplishments as attorney general and in the legislature. It touts both his conservative credentials and his ability to work with Democrat Kaine.

Looks like a good start. Virginia needs a vibrant and inclusive Republican Party. So does the rest of the country.
Contact Bob Rayner at (804) 649-6073 or .