America’s Still Conservative, But Obama Is Not

Reports about the death of conservatism in America may be greatly exaggerated, at least according to a poll released by Gallup last week that -- big surprise -- didn't generate a lot of interest in the mainstream media.

Gallup, perhaps the most respected and unbiased polling organization in the country, found that self-identified conservatives outnumber liberals by a 2-1 margin. Forty percent of Americans describe themselves as conservative, compared with 21 percent who say they are liberal. Another 35 percent label themselves as moderate.

The results, based on a random survey of 1,000 adults nationwide, are remarkably consistent with Gallup's findings over the past 15 years. The number of conservatives dropped briefly in 2008 to 37 percent, but rebounded this year.

The numbers suggest that Barack Obama's election does not herald a new era of left-wing activism in the U.S. -- and that the president's liberal policy agenda will rely almost entirely on his personal popularity, which could be threatened if he continues to pursue the big-government, high-tax approaches that have dominated his first five months in office.

Gallup also found that -- despite the country's consistent center-right focus -- Republicans are outnumbered by both Democrats and independents. Thirty-seven percent of Americans say they are independents, 36 percent Democrats, and 28 percent Republicans. Democrats' success in the past two election cycles sprang from their ability to appeal to moderates and independents.

The obvious lesson for Republicans is to do a better job attracting moderates, but in a way that does not alienate the 40 percent of Americans who are conservative. The GOP appears to be making progress on this front. Bob McDonnell's campaign for governor of Virginia clearly understands the challenge and, so far, seems to be hitting all the right notes.

The election in November will be a good test of the party's ability to create a majority coalition built on a solid conservative base and increased support from moderates. That's why so much national attention will be focused on the Old Dominion this year.

But Gallup's survey also suggests interesting implications about President Obama's lurch to the left. According to the poll, a third of independents and 22 percent of Democrats describe themselves as conservative. (Just 3 percent of Republicans say they are liberal.) And only one in five independents is liberal.

These numbers are consistent with exit surveys from the November election that showed 20 percent of conservatives casting their ballots for Obama. Why would so many on the right vote for a man so clearly of the left? Well, in part, because big-spending Republicans alienated many fiscal conservatives when the GOP controlled the White House and Congress. But also because the president's core economic message during the campaign was conservative.

Candidate Obama's position papers and policy speeches contained clear signals that he planned to govern as an economic liberal. But the primary economic message in his TV commercials -- and the applause line in his stump speech -- was his ubiquitous pledge to cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans. That is a blatantly conservative promise, one that he delivered on with his $400-per-year tax credit for moderateand lower-income individuals.

The tax credit may not last more than a year or two, but it has plainly served its primary purpose -- allowing Obama to portray himself as a tax cutter in a country that still equates low taxes with fiscal prudence and sound economic policy. Problem is, the president's spending binge -- and the unprecedented post-WWII deficits that it creates -- will make it impossible to avoid more taxes on virtually everyone who holds a job, runs a business, or buys anything at all.

Higher cigarette taxes -- always the easiest to raise -- are simply the beginning. The administration is floating trial balloons about taxing everything from soft drinks to employer-provided health insurance. The president's spending plans, which have already alienated some of his more conservative fans, will force him to move to the left on taxes sooner rather than later -- and that will cost him support among many moderates, especially in the business community.

The only alternatives to massively higher taxes would be endless and enormous deficits or dangerous inflation -- or both. The bond market has started sending signals -- in the form of higher long-term interest rates -- that it is worried about out-of-control federal spending and the Federal Reserve's expansion of the money supply. If rates -- especially on mortgages -- continue to increase, they're likely to snuff out the very faint signals of economic recovery that have sporadically emerged in the past couple of months.

The national media, which have devolved into a public relations firm for the new president, seem to have decided that former President Bush's low standing in public opinion polls is proof positive that the American public hungers not only for big government but also for the high taxes that will be needed to pay for it.

That's wishful thinking.

A Gallup poll earlier this month captured the president's personal popularity: 67 percent of Americans view him favorably and 61 percent approve of his overall job performance. But a couple of cracks are beginning to show, in the most unsurprising places: just 46 percent approve of Obama's handling of the federal budget deficit, while 48 percent disapprove. And only 45 percent approve of how well he has managed federal spending, while 51 percent disapprove.

Another Gallup survey in June found that 41 percent of Americans favored the government takeover of General Motors, while 55 percent did not.

It's difficult to imagine any of these figures improving any time soon.

Finally -- and this is the number to remember -- precisely 3 percent of Americans told Gallup back in April, the last time it asked the question, that they believe their federal income taxes are too low.

So how and when, precisely, does the president plan to tell the other 97 percent that they're going to have to contribute more to the well-being of their federal government?

If he's not very, very careful, he might just push the percentage of conservatives well above 40 percent.

Contact Bob Rayner at (804) 649-6073 or .