Rayner: Is Deeds Still the Comeback Kid?

Creigh Deeds likes to remind people that he's a fast closer. After all, he zoomed from last place back in June to score an easy victory in the Democratic primary for governor, topping two formidable opponents. And four years ago, he was trailing Bob McDonnell in the final weeks of the campaign for attorney general, only to lose to the Republican by a mere 360 votes.

Will the state senator from Bath manage to score a hat trick in his rematch with McDonnell this year? A recent RealClearPolitics average of gubernatorial polls gives McDonnell an almost 11-point lead. The Deeds campaign says it's a bit closer -- maybe 5 or 6 points -- and the McDonnellites, perhaps worried about overconfidence, aren't disputing that publicly.

Most everyone accepts that McDonnell's ahead with just over a week until Election Day. Deeds remains within striking distance, but just barely.

Unlike primary elections, which can be remarkably fluid until the final days because voters aren't hitched to one candidate thanks to party loyalty, the pool of up-for-grabs voters tends to be a much smaller portion of the electorate in general elections. Plus, the governor's race has been playing out for months, giving voters plenty of time to make up their minds. Primary voters frequently don't tune in until the final week or so of the campaign.

Deeds' near-comeback in 2005 may not apply this year, either. With attention focused on the campaign for governor, voters often don't decide on down-ticket races until late in the game. And when they do, they're frequently swayed by the candidate at the top of the ticket. Deeds' late rush four years ago was no doubt assisted by Gov. Tim Kaine's strong finish.

Deeds may yet pull this one out, but his previous late-inning rallies are not especially useful in predicting the 2009 finale at the top of the ticket.

History also suggests that Republican Sen. Ken Cuccinelli's bid for attorney general will succeed, for some of the reasons cited above. Cuccinelli leads in most public polls, but there's always been a sense that his opponent, Del. Steve Shannon, is the Democrat with the best chance to win. He has more money than Cuccinelli, for one thing. And Shannon has been able to tap into at least some of the business support that has been the foundation of Mark Warner's success.

On the other hand, if McDonnell wins comfortably and Cuccinelli is ahead going into the final 10 days, it's hard to imagine enough late-deciding voters switching to Shannon to allow him to overcome Cuccinelli's lead. New Jersey may swing back to the Democrats, but a Republican sweep in Virginia seems increasingly likely.

-- Bob Rayner