Trends abound this election year

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine calls it Virginia's "32-year curse."

Virginia has followed eight consecutive presidential elections by electing a governor of the opposing party a year later.

Most recently, Democrat Kaine's 2005 victory came a year after the re election of President George W. Bush, a Republican.

"I used to think that [trend] was a coincidence," Kaine said earlier this year. He said he now thinks it's a sign of "buyer's remorse."

Bob McDonnell, the now-official Republican nominee for governor, certainly hopes that's the case, seven months after Democrat Barack Obama's election as president.

Beyond "buyer's remorse," the so-called curse might be a sign that Virginia, a state of far-flung, distinctly different regions, prefers political equilibrium.

Consider that the Nov. 3 election will be Virginia's 11th vote for governor since the onset of the state's competitive two-party elections in 1969.

In the 10 contests to date, Virginians elected five Republican governors and five Democratic governors. In six of the 10 elections, Virginians voted for split tickets -- as in 2005, when they elected Democrat Kaine as governor and Republicans Bill Bolling as lieutenant governor and McDonnell as attorney general.

The so-called curse and the split-ticket phenomenon are just two of the intriguing subplots surrounding Virginia's upcoming elections for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

Our political reporters, Tyler Whitley, Jeff Schapiro, Jim Nolan, and Olympia Meola, will have many captivating stories to mine -- in print and online, through videos, online chats, and the Virginia Politics blog.

Can Kaine, Obama's handpicked chairman of the Democratic National Committee, ensure that a Democrat will follow him in the Executive Mansion? Will young voters stay engaged after Obama's election and be a force in the fall campaign?

Among the other interesting questions to consider:

Realignment, or Obama anomaly?

Last November Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia in 44 years. Democrat Mark R. Warner won a U.S. Senate seat and Democrats picked up three seats to take a majority in the state's U.S. House delegation.

Obama carried Northern Virginia by 233,000 votes, Hampton Roads by nearly 79,000, and greater Richmond by 39,000.

Was Obama's electoral sweep a unique melding of a man, a moment, money, and organization -- or a sign of Virginia's new norm?

Whose Virginia is it, anyway?

The winner of Tuesday's Democratic gubernatorial primary is anybody's guess. But we know this much: If State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds does not win, Virginians are assured of their third consecutive governor who was not born in the state. Terry McAuliffe was born in Syracuse, N.Y., Brian J. Moran in Natick, Mass., and McDonnell in Philadelphia.

Four of the past seven governors were born out of state -- Charles S. Robb (Phoenix), George Allen (Whittier, Calif.), Warner (Indianapolis), and Kaine (St. Paul, Minn.).

Before Robb, only four of the state's 20 previous governors, dating back to 1902, were born outside Virginia -- one in North Carolina, two in West Virginia, and another on a boat somewhere in the North Atlantic.

Another question we're considering is whether the shift from native sons matters -- whether something is lost or something is gained.

Perhaps this trend -- like the 32-year curse and split-ticket voting -- merely reflects the creative churning of an inherently independent state, notable for its unpredictable politics.

Andrew Cain is Politics editor. Contact him at (804) 649-6645 or .