‘Purple’ Virginia a tough electorate to predict

When I was a boy in Arlington, my brother, Paul, practiced the piano every afternoon, aided by a metronome, a timing device with a wand that swung left, swung right, and eventually settled back in the middle.

Years later, that metronome seems a fit ting metaphor for Virginia politics.

After Tuesday's Republican triumph, we might be tempted to draw sweeping conclusions about Virginia's new political landscape -- just as when Barack Obama made history a scant 12 months ago.

But Virginia's politics are a graduate course in humility for any would-be seer. Today's realignment leads to tomorrow's reversion.

Consider that in November 2008 Obama won Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, and Henrico counties by a combined 165,630 votes. On Tuesday, Republican Bob McDonnell, now Virginia's governor-elect, won all four by a combined 43,216.

As my grandfather used to say: "Never bet on a sure thing."

When it comes to governors, this is one streaky state.

Starting in 1969, the onset of Virginia's modern two-party competition, Virginia's voters elected three Republican governors, followed by three Democratic governors, then two Republicans, then two Democrats. Now, by virtue of Tuesday's sweep, it is again the Republicans' turn.

This delightfully fickle state, in which voters don't register by party, often seems particularly attuned to the national mood.

Only about 40 percent of Virginia's registered voters turned out Tuesday. Thousands of Obama's backers didn't bother with the governor's race. Exit polls showed that a majority of Tuesday's Virginia voters had backed Republican John McCain for president.

But the exit polls also showed that this vote was about more than Obama no-shows. Self-described independents, who had narrowly backed Obama last year, backed McDonnell on Tuesday by 2 to 1.

On Oct. 27, the president saluted Virginia's thoughtful, unaligned electorate when he campaigned for Democrat R. Creigh Deeds at Old Dominion University in Norfolk.

"This is an evenly split state [with] pretty independent-minded folks," he said. "And that's good, that's healthy. We are at our best when we're engaged in a great debate where ideas are tested and assumptions are challenged. That's how we strengthen our proposals. That's how we strengthen our government."

Virginia's annual elections can be a finger in the wind -- and yes, the finger depends on the voters' mood. But a bellwether election is easier to spot in hindsight.

So, without overstating the case, what lessons should we draw? For one, it is incumbent upon us as journalists to listen and not to be dismissive of political movements, whether they involve Obama supporters rallying for health care reform, or equally passionate Tea Party participants who believe the president has gone too far.

Rep. Tom Perriello, D-5th, seems to have gotten the message from both sides. This summer the freshman held more than 20 town hall meetings to discuss health care.

That's because Perriello is what's next. All 11 of Virginia's U.S. House seats are up in 2010. Perriello is running in perhaps the state's most closely divided district. Who knows which way the wand will swing?

On Oct. 27, as Obama flew to ODU, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters on Air Force One that Virginia is neither Republican red, nor Democratic blue -- that it is "probably as purple as it can get."

It's no wonder, then, that Virginians take to the state's unpredictable politics with a purple passion.

Andrew Cain is Politics editor. Contact him at (804) 649-6645 or .