Mary Sue McAuliffe?

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Terry McAuliffe's coronation as the Democratic nominee for governor may be postponed -- if not imperiled.

A pair of polls in the past few weeks shows the former Democratic national chairman -- and self-professed best friend of Bill Clinton -- trailing former Del. Brian Moran by 4 to 5 percentage points. State Sen. Creigh Deeds runs third in both surveys.

The race to win the June 9 primary remains wide open, with nearly half of likely voters undecided, according to both surveys. Conventional wisdom has suggested that the combination of McAuliffe's semi-celebrity status and his vast fundraising network will eventually push him over the top -- and they well may.

But a couple of numbers in the polls -- one by Public Policy Polling and the other by Research 2000 for DailyKos.com -- hint at potential problems for McAuliffe.

In the DailyKos poll, McAuliffe is the only candidate who has more voters saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him than have a favorable one -- although by a statistically insignificant 35-36 margin. (Republican Bob McDonnell is viewed favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent.)

The PPP poll may be even more ominous. The Raleigh, N.C., firm has been surveying the race since January. McAuliffe's unfavorable rating has increased in each survey, from 23 percent in January to 29 percent in late March. By comparison, Moran's unfavorable rating was 15 percent in the March poll and Deeds' was 12 percent. The favorable ratings were nearly identical for all three.

What's striking about McAuliffe's weakening position is that it comes as he is dominating the media -- both in paid advertising and in news coverage. A veteran Republican observer said it's hard to remember a statewide candidate in Virginia losing ground even as the campaign blankets the commonwealth with largely positive, feel-good TV commercials. Although he did recall one example: Democrat Mary Sue Terry's campaign for governor in 1993. The well-financed former attorney general saw her enormous lead over George Allen shrink over the summer even though she had the airwaves virtually to herself.

Allen, of course, scored a landslide victory that November, ending a streak of three consecutive gubernatorial wins for the Democrats.

-- Bob Rayner