Obama in Norfolk

Last year Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964. On Tuesday, he led a Norfolk rally to boost the flagging gubernatorial campaign of Creigh Deeds.

Deeds confronts a curse that has seen Virginia elect a governor from the party opposite the president in every election since 1977. It has not elected a Democratic governor when a Democrat occupied the White House since 1965. Yet even at this late hour, fate might side with Deeds. Consider the LBJ precedent. The polls show Deeds losing ground, nevertheless.

New Jersey also holds statewide elections next week. Although a third-party entry complicates the gubernatorial contest, a Republican upset in that heavily Democratic state could impede Obama's agenda. This year's returns have the potential to prove sobering for Democrats representing swing states and districts.

Republicans should be wary of premature glee, even if they score a sweep. At the midpoint of Ronald Reagan's first term experts rated his administration a "failed presidency" and normally insightful journalists predicted he would not run for re-election.

History fascinates.