Coloring Book
Bob McDonnell won nine of the state's 11 congressional districts; only the 3rd and the 8th went for Creigh Deeds, and they are Democratic bastions. The GOP ticket prevailed from top to bottom. Bill Bolling easily won re-election as lieutenant governor. If one year ago an expert had predicted Ken Cuccinelli would be elected attorney general in a landslide, he would have lost his license to practice punditry.
Democrats entered the campaign with hopes of picking up seats in the House of Delegates. The more extravagant among them dreamed of taking the chamber. On Tuesday, the GOP added to its totals, thereby reversing several cycles of decline. Republicans scored gains in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Locally, Republican John O'Bannon won re-election in the only House race thought to be competitive. The decisive nature of his welcome win suggests yard signs are not reliable indicators.
Election 2009 reflected the electoral primacy of suburbia. Democrats had dominated Northern Virginia's vote-rich suburbs in recent statewide races and had pruned GOP margins in Central Virginia. Henrico, for instance, became a battleground. And while Chesterfield continued to back Republicans, its GOP share suffered erosion. (Shortly after the polls closed last November the Editorial offices concluded Barack Obama would carry Virginia when the staff saw that John McCain won Chesterfield by only a few points.) This week the region returned to partisan normalcy. McDonnell took Henrico with room to spare and won Chesterfield with Reaganesque numbers. Hanover produced its typical GOP rout. Democrats prospered in Richmond, yet in all but the closest elections the city is marginalized -- as are urban cores throughout the commonwealth. Power lies among the greenswards and the parking lots.
Swing voters want government that delivers the essentials efficiently. They expect competence from their elected officials and are weary of social crusades from the left and the right. There is a disconnect between the ideological bases and the electorate's center. Culture ultimately trumps politics, yet at this moment the political realm lacks the seriousness for informed debate of first things. It is best to focus on physical infrastructure instead. Soulcraft is within.
If the GOP performance impresses, then turnout does not. The 2009 tally is not final, but its total vote likely will mirror the total vote in 2005. About 2 million Virginians cast ballots four years ago; about 2 million cast ballots on Tuesday. Democrats won the first election, Republicans the second. Statistics such as these complicate the art of political interpretation -- which is to say the "art" usually consists of bloviators asserting their predilections. Partisans see what they want to see. Every result proves them right and their competitors wrong. One side's victories are transcendental, the other side's mere blips. Perhaps one observer in 1,000 sees through a gimlet eye. We make no claims for ourselves, and, for that matter, prefer wine to gin and sweetened lime.
Virginia is competitive, neither blue nor red but purple. And the decisive pages in the state's coloring book are found in Chesterfield, Henrico, and Hanover -- and in their counterparts in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
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Asian Voter Voted Overwhelmingly for Governor-Elect Robert “Bob” McDonnell
http://sites.google.com/site/leagueofnewvoters/home
Release Date: November 4, 2009
Contact: M. Hanh Trieu
Fairfax County Virginia—The League of New Voters (LNV), which was founded in the Spring of 2009 in response to the needs of new voters who are naturalized U.S. citizens, conducted a month long nonpartisan telephone survey (Oct 1, 2009 to Nov 3, 2009) to assess Asian voters’ outlook on the Virginia gubernatorial and House of Delegate elections.
A survey of 16,293 registered Asian American voters in twelve legislative districts in Northern Virginia, where the Asian population is as high as 21.2% (LD39) of general population, showed that an average of 58.5% voted for Bob McDonnell the governor-elect. Furthermore, Asian American voter turn out was highest among Chinese and Vietnamese Americans on Election Day 2009, but it may take months before the Board of Elections releases an exact figure. As a point of reference, in Election 2008, Asian Americans voter turnout in Virginia reached a historic high of 61% according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch newspaper (07/2009).
Virginia’s Asian American votes made a key difference in this contest and reversed the trend of Election 2008 where Asian Americans voted by a big margin for Obama - according to the Asian American Legal Defense Fund.
Voter education, strategic communications in native Asian languages and dedicated outreach efforts by candidate McDonnell were key factors for earning the Asian votes, and determining the outcome of this race. The League of New Voters applaud Asian voters of Virginia for actively participating in this historic election and we look forward to working with the McDonnell Administration to ensure that Asian Americans interests in Virginia are accurately represented.
We commend the candidates for their efforts. The League of New Voters will continue to be a resource to office seekers so that they can more fully engage the growing Asian American communities in the political process.
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Posted by Old Grump on November 05, 2009 at 5:17 am
As the old saying goes, “all politics is local”. With no national election or issue to drive the turnout, Deeds was simply the wrong candidate, with the wrong campaign, and the wrong message,...
What message was that?
As the old saying goes, “all politics is local”. With no national election or issue to drive the turnout, Deeds was simply the wrong candidate, with the wrong campaign, and the wrong message, at the wrong time. It was an honest election, and Virginians showed how they felt about the two would-be governors. What they’ll say in 2010 in the off-year Congressional contests, which will have national implications and most likely measure passions for national issues remains to be seen. How both parties approach it will be interesting. The two contests are totally different. How Democrats and Republicans read the mood of the electorate will determine its outcome. to predict that McDonald’s victor portends a Republican or conservative trend is premature. Things can change a lot in 365 days, as we have seen this year. It will be interesting.
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