McDonnell Wins: Message Politics

One word applies to yesterday's election in numerous ways: message. Bob McDonnell stuck with his; Creigh Deeds did not have one; the results send several. But first, a primal wow: One year after going blue at the presidential level for the first time since 1964, Virginia produced its reddest election in more than a decade. Last night Virginia Democrats learned again that glory is fleeting. Giddy Republicans would be wise to remember.

McDonnell pounded the theme of "Bob for jobs." He seldom touched social issues and other diversions but focused almost exclusively on the economy, transportation, education, and other day-to-day obligations. He nationalized the campaign by adding to the mix federal controversies such as health care, cap and trade, and card check. Even here he stressed the implications for Virginia. The Republican ran a classic race and won emphatically.

Deeds foundered. He claimed the Democratic primary in large part because he presented a civil and bemused alternative to Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran, the two front-runners who grew increasingly shrill. When the general election opened, however, Deeds turned not only negative but in an off-putting manner. Negativism receives a bum rap. There is nothing inherently wrong in pointing out the opposition's flaws. Yet in attacking McDonnell's graduate school thesis -- a subject ripe for criticism, a subject open to scorn, praise, or even bewilderment -- Deeds picked a topic that seemed of scant concern to mainstream voters. If the center did not agree with what McDonnell wrote back in the day, then it was more interested in the platform candidate McDonnell emphasized than in the divisive tactics Deeds employed. An amiable fellow who would make an ideal seatmate at a Dodgers-Reds game, Deeds came to resemble a fan of the Oakland Raiders.

Deeds occupied a strange spot along the political spectrum. Election 2009 rates as the biggest gubernatorial rout since George Allen buried Mary Sue Terry in 1994. Think of the similarities: Deeds and Terry rose from rural regions and built reputations as so-called Virginia Democrats not necessarily in tune with the national party and perhaps not fully in harmony with their more vivid in-state peers. They started their campaigns in strong shape, but as the process progressed both found themselves without constituencies. Neither rallied the partisan base. They failed to appeal to independents as well. Democratic presidents did not help them, either -- but that is an old Virginia tradition, omen, blessing, or curse. This would have been a different election with John McCain in the White House.

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The news cannot be spun as anything but somber for the Obama administration. Republicans dominated from the top of the ticket to the bottom. Moderate Democrats in swing districts and states will not miss the point. The margins have implications for Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye, Democrats who hold GOP-leaning House seats and who will be up for re-election next year in midterms that historically are not happy for the presidential party. Votes for Pelosicare, cap and trade, and card check would doom them.

The election delivers a nuanced message to Republicans. The party can prevail when it returns to basics, that much is clear. McDonnell also avoided the issues and the rhetoric that excite certain factions. He did not rely on a Palin playbook. Nor did he come off as a florid embodiment of resentments and beefs or as a proponent of crackpot conspiracies. A chip did not sit upon his shoulder. A pre-election analysis on Politico.com argued that McDonnell surged in the state's bellwether jurisdictions by attracting voters who expect efficient government and decent services but who do not welcome a leviathan and -- this is important -- who lack political passions. The decisive ballots are cast by people who do not live and breathe ideology. Of course, McDonnell did not have to strike the matches or pour on the kerosene to fire up the base. The Obama administration took care of that. McDonnell was aided by arson.

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McDonnell will enter the governor's office in an atmosphere not of crisis but of grave difficulties and potential danger. The economic indicators remain open to competing interpretations. The recession officially may be over, a statistic of scant comfort to mill workers in Franklin and other employees who have lost jobs that never will return. Unemployment will continue to rise, as it does in the early days of recoveries. A rebound is more likely to be modest than robust. State and local revenue will take additional hits, even as demands for legitimate services accelerate. Virginia already has coped with serious budget cuts. Federal stimulus funds helped the commonwealth balance its budget. While the stimulus created few jobs in the private sector, it may have helped the state, and its cities and counties, maintain staffing levels. Public jobs preserved by stimulus spending redound to the advantage of private enterprise. What will happen when the stimulus runs dry?

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The temptation in elections is to read too much into them rather than too little. Twice in the past 30-40 years Virginia's odd-year gubernatorial contests have been of national import. This one has the potential to be the third. It is enough to say that the verdict will have consequences for Virginia for the next four years.