Travel expected to be down on late Labor Day

Virginians may be settling in for fall instead of planning to travel for Labor Day.

A little more than 1 million Virginians are expected to take a trip of 50 miles or longer over the weekend, a decrease of about 15 percent from last year, according to AAA Mid-Atlantic. But the expected dip in holiday travel may have more to do with the calendar than the economic recession.

Labor Day falls on Sept. 7 this year, in the second week of a month that marks the annual passage from summer to fall.

"Many schools have started and families are simply deciding to stay home," Martha Mitchell Meade, manager of public and governmental affairs at AAA Mid-Atlantic, said at a news conference at an interstate overpass in Richmond yesterday.

While many public schools won't open until after Labor Day, "you're getting a bit far into September," Meade said in an interview later. "It just has a different feel to it."

Most of those who plan to travel will drive -- about 865,000, or 84 percent -- while the number of Virginians who will fly or take other options, such as rail or bus, is expected to drop sharply. However, a spokesman for Richmond International Airport said he doesn't agree with AAA's projections for air travel.

AAA predicts that just 39,000 Virginians will fly over the holiday, a decline of 20 percent from a year ago. But airport spokesman Troy Bell said that more than 41,000 passengers flew through Richmond alone over the five-day holiday last year. He said air travel over the summer has declined by about 4 percent, and carriers have been aggressive in lowering prices to attract business.

"I don't think we're going to see that kind of a difference," said Bell, who predicted a "low single-digit decline" in travel at the airport over the holiday from last year.

AAA bases its projections on research by a Boston-based consulting firm that surveys plans for trips of 50 miles or more in one direction from Thursday through Monday.

One clear difference from last year is the price of gasoline. Gas costs about $1 less than it did a year ago. Yesterday, RichmondGasPrices.com reported prices as low as $2.30 a gallon in the Richmond area, and the average price statewide was $2.47 a gallon.

A year ago, gas prices averaged $3.53 a gallon statewide over Labor Day, after peaking at more than $4 a gallon over the July Fourth holiday. That decline, coupled with last-minute travel deals and pent-up consumer demand, caused more Virginians to travel than expected last year, making this year's decline look bigger, Meade said. "Last year, a lot of people decided to travel at the last minute."

Even with fewer people traveling this year, AAA expects the number to be the third highest for Labor Day in the past decade and to exceed travel over the July Fourth weekend, which traditionally is the highest.

Virginia State Police hope to drop one other number this weekend -- highway fatalities. Last year, seven people died in traffic wrecks over the Labor Day weekend, compared with 22 the previous year. Capt. Steven L. Chumley said he'd like to see the number drop further this year.

"I think we could do that if people would wear seat belts and drive alcohol-free," Chumley said yesterday.

And if you have outdoor plans, the weather is likely to feel pretty good, with little chance of rain and temperatures ranging from the low 60s at night to the mid-80s in the day in the Richmond region. Labor Day itself is expected to be mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Contact Michael Martz at (804) 649-6964 or .