Obama proving to be mixed blessing for Deeds

Gubernatorial Election

President Barack Obama's personal appeal to L. Douglas Wilder made Wilder's refusal to back fellow Democrat R. Creigh Deeds for governor a bigger story.

And Obama's health-care and energy proposals have made it easier for Republican Bob McDonnell to bring federal issues into the Virginia contest.

But the president retains a solid base of support in Virginia -- with demonstrated fundraising and organizational prowess.

So, is Obama helping the Democratic candidate for governor, or is he getting in the way? A little bit of both, political analysts say.

"President Obama is part of the strategic environment that Creigh Deeds cannot control," said Robert Denton, political analyst at Virginia Tech. "He allows McDonnell to nationalize the election."

But Obama also has a readily identifiable voter base that could prove a significant boost for Deeds in the Nov. 3 election, he said.

Particularly among black voters, "if Obama could generate the same energy as he did running for president, it would be very helpful to Deeds," Denton said.

Last November, Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Virginia since 1964. In a Washington Post poll released Sunday, 53 percent of Virginia's likely voters said they approve of Obama's job performance, up from 47 percent in August.

Deeds and McDonnell say they are running a Virginia campaign based on Virginia issues.

But McDonnell, a former state attorney general, has been trying to tie Deeds, a state senator from Bath County, to federal legislation backed by Democrats -- from a proposed health-care overhaul, to union "card-check" legislation, to a "cap-and-trade" bill meant to reduce carbon emissions.

"This race isn't about other personalities, it's about the federal and state policies that will have an impact on Virginians," said Tucker Martin, communications director for McDonnell.

"There is a tendency to nationalize this race," said Mo Elleithee, senior strategist for the Deeds campaign. "Ultimately, this race will be decided on Virginia issues, not national issues."

Elleithee said Deeds would be "thrilled to have the president back in Virginia."

Obama appeared at a fundraiser and rally for Deeds on Aug. 6 in McLean.

"This is a man who spent his life working to do right by his family and the last 20 years working to do right by the people of Virginia," Obama said of Deeds.

Deeds speaks warmly of Obama but does not fully embrace all of his policies. On Sept. 17, at a debate sponsored by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, moderator David Gregory asked Deeds whether Obama is his kind of Democrat.

"I'm a Creigh Deeds Democrat," he said.

Deeds has utilized the president's support strategically.

His Aug. 6 rally with Obama was in Fairfax, a locality that Obama carried by 109,000 votes last year.

Deeds released a radio ad featuring audio from the rally, in which Obama praised Deeds. The ad ran only on black-oriented radio stations in Richmond, Hampton Roads and Roanoke.

By contrast, in his television ads, Deeds links himself to popular Sen. Mark R. Warner, D-Va., but not to the president.

The radio ads appear to have helped Deeds narrow the gap with McDonnell. Deeds had the support of 64 percent of black voters in a Public Policy Polling survey released Aug. 4. In its next poll, released Sept. 1, he was drawing 81 percent of black voters' support.

A key question for Deeds is whether that support will materialize on Election Day. Voter turnout traditionally drops in nonpresidential years.

Deeds has avoided a couple of Virginia appearances by Obama. For example, on July 1, Deeds campaigned in Hampton Roads while Obama led a health-care town-hall meeting at Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale.

McDonnell has been careful in his criticisms of Obama. In fact, he goes out of his way to say he agrees with the president on issues such as charter schools and support for performance pay for teachers.

In a recent "Crystal Ball" analysis, University of Virginia political scientist Larry J. Sabato took note of the political phenomenon that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine calls Virginia's "32-year curse."

Virginia has followed eight consecutive presidential elections by electing a governor of the opposing party a year later.

Sabato said this is more than a coincidence.

"Voters of the president's party are less satisfied and motivated. Voters of the opposition party are energized, concerned and sometimes outraged by the president's actions," Sabato wrote.

"The people who show up on Election Day are disproportionately members of the opposition party and they want to send Washington and especially the White House a message," Sabato wrote.

To which Mame Reiley, a Democratic activist from Fairfax, said: "So what?" She noted that last year, Obama broke the trend of Republican presidential candidates winning Virginia.

If Obama comes into Hampton Roads to campaign for Deeds shortly before the election, he will help Deeds carry the state, she said.

"President Obama absolutely excites Democrats," added Abbi Easter of Chesterfield County, chairwoman of the 7th District Democratic Committee. "Creigh Deeds and Barack Obama dovetail quite nicely."

But Ray Allen Jr., a Republican political consultant, said: "Obama collapsed faster than anyone could have anticipated. It is clear he has been overreaching."

That, coupled with Kaine's role as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, has hurt Democrats in Virginia, he said.

"I don't think Creigh Deeds has figured out how to deal with it."

Contact Tyler Whitley at (804) 649-6780 or .