Poll: McAuliffe leads Democratic rivals by 10 percentage points

Terry McAuliffe's cash and advertising advantage is translating to a double-digit lead in the increasingly bitter race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, a new poll shows.

Among likely voters in the June 9 primary, McAuliffe, who has raised more than $4 million and has been running television advertising for months, is favored by 30 percent, according to survey released yesterday by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, N.C.

Brian J. Moran is pulling 20 percent, and R. Creigh Deeds, 14 percent.

"McAuliffe is commanding the mass media and the political conversation," said Mark J. Rozell, a political analyst atGeorge Mason University. "He is very well-positioned right now."

However, because the poll is neither a measure of the intensity of voter preference, nor a harbinger of turnout, Rozell said anything could happen in June: "Don't take these polls to the bank."

The survey was based on interviews Friday through Sunday with 583 voters, and its results could vary 4.1 percentage points in either direction.

It was released as Moran -- through e-mail and online videos -- sharpens his attacks on McAuliffe, raising questions about the millions he made investing in now-bust companies, and saying he has lied about the number of jobs he has created in Virginia.

Moran's campaign first questioned portions of the survey, saying it doesn't accurately reflect the candidate's strength in vote-rich Northern Virginia, and then countered with a poll of its own that puts the race between Moran and McAuliffe as too close to call.

"The ones you trust are the ones you do," Moran strategist Steve Jarding said. "I wouldn't trade where we're at. We know it's a race that's going to come down to the wire."

On Monday, Deeds joined the advertising duel, running commercials in all broadcast markets except pricey Northern Virginia, home of Moran and McAuliffe. Moran has yet to advertise on television.

"We are certainly glad to see that . . . our message is reaching voters," McAuliffe communications director Delacey Skinner said of the Public Policy poll. "Our total focus is on Primary Day."

Deeds' campaign said many respondents indicated they could change their mind, suggesting the race is wide open. "That's why we've saved our resources for a full-court press in the last stretch of this campaign," spokeswoman Brooke Borkenhagen said.

The Public Policy poll shows Moran, a former delegate from Alexandria, ahead in Northern Virginia with 43 percent. McAuliffe, of McLean, trails at 23 percent. Deeds, a state senator from rural Bath County, has 10 percent.

But the poll puts McAuliffe out front by at least 20 points in heavily suburban Hampton Roads, in the Richmond area and in rural Southside -- areas with large numbers of unionists and African-Americans. Both are important Democratic voter blocs.

Moran's poll, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, shows McAuliffe with 31 percent; Moran, 29 percent; and Deeds, 18 percent. The survey was conducted from April 30 to May 3. Based on interviews with 606 likely Democratic primary voters, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

With a little more than a month before balloting, outgoing Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a Democrat whose political legacy is on the line, is expressing concern about growing tension among the candidates.

"They don't always get the tone exactly right," said Kaine, handpicked by President Barack Obama for McAuliffe's old job as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

"We've got to give them a little space -- those of us who aren't on the ballot right now -- give them a little space to run their campaigns."

Virginia and New Jersey -- both were carried last year by Obama -- are the only states choosing governors in 2009. The elections are likely to viewed as referendums on the new president.

Contact Jeff Schapiro at (804) 649-6814 or .

Contact Olympia Meola at (804) 649-6812 or .

Staff writer Jim Nolan contributed to this report.