McDonnell extends advantage in Times-Dispatch poll
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Democrat Creigh Deeds (top) and Republican Bob McDonnell hit the campaign trail across Virginia in the stretch run in their race for governor.
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Published: November 1, 2009
Updated: November 1, 2009
Republican Bob McDonnell appears poised to win the governorship and lead a GOP sweep Tuesday, ending nearly a decade of reverses for his party, according to The Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll.
McDonnell is favored by 53 percent, while Democrat R. Creigh Deeds is preferred by 41 percent -- a widened lead from an early October survey for the newspaper. Six percent are undecided in the latest poll.
McDonnell's comfortable lead, along with those of his running mates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, points to a dramatic comeback for Republicans that could include a heftier majority in the House of Delegates.
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is ahead of Jody Wagner by 13 percentage points. For attorney general, Republican Ken Cuccinelli is up 14 percentage points over Steve Shannon.
McDonnell could become the first Republican elected governor since Jim Gilmore in 1997. Since 2001, Democrats have twice won the governorship, taken back two U.S. Senate seats, seized a majority in the U.S. House delegation and control of the Virginia Senate.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. conducted The Times-Dispatch Poll this past Wednesday and Thursday. The results, based on interviews with 625 registered voters likely to cast ballots Tuesday, could vary 4 percentage points in either direction.
The Times-Dispatch Poll shows McDonnell, having suffered little or no damage from Deeds' focus on his controversial law-school thesis, is ahead in all regions of the state and competitive in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia.
Further, McDonnell is statistically tied with Deeds among women, a traditional bulwark for Democrats. Deeds has tried to invigorate female voters by spotlighting portions of the thesis in which McDonnell, among other things, criticized working women as a threat to families. McDonnell now disavows such views.
Deeds' attacks on McDonnell apparently have backfired, with the Democrat's unfavorable rating, at 42 percent, exceeding his favorable score. McDonnell has a 51 percent favorable rating.
The Times-Dispatch Poll suggests that Deeds might not have been helped by President Barack Obama's visit to Norfolk a week before the election.
The appearance, which roughly coincided with the poll, was intended to drive up support for Deeds among Obama's key constituents, including African-Americans. However, the poll shows that black support for Deeds, at 82 percent, is virtually unchanged from early October. Deeds also is slipping in Hampton Roads, site of the Obama visit and McDonnell's home base.
Possibly eroding the benefits for Deeds of the Obama visit: the president's diminished standing in Virginia. Obama carried the state last year, in part by boosting turnout among blacks and young people -- voters Deeds hopes to harness.
Obama is the first Democrat to win Virginia for the presidency in 44 years -- a distinction that has transformed the governor's race into what some see as a referendum on the young administration in Washington.
In The Times-Dispatch Poll, Virginians are now evenly split in their perceptions of Obama, who won Virginia with 53 percent of the vote. Forty-three percent of respondents say they have a favorable view of Obama, while 43 percent rate him unfavorably. His negative rating in Virginia is at an all-time high.
Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 649-6814 or
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Reader Reactions
Wow, guys…put down your pen. In our two party system, it is silly to think you are going to agree with everything a party “stands for”. They have to be ridiculously broad in their approach unless there is a unifying theme through which everyone can rally. Then the secondary points don’t matter as much.
It is funny that two months ago the political pundits said that the Virginia race was very important in determining public sentiment and now they say it might not mean a whole lot. I also don’t really understand how a small house race in NY is more important than a governor’s race in NJ or VA. The number of voters is dramatically different.
Now we can all look forward to McDonnell, who has “creative policies for creating jobs” not to mention his great ideas for fixing roads and state infrastructure using funds from…..uuuuh…..well maybe…..uh….hm…..
Maybe user fees (some folks call them taxes, office holding Republicans that need money call them user fees). At any rate, between him and the Republicans in the state legislature, I’m sure they’ll come up with something…..........to be sure they’ll come up with something besides their usual “lets kick this can further down the road and hope it doesn’t land in a pothole!“
Fight the progress!!! Rush away, Rush away!
Don’t stay home tomorrow just because you think McDonnell doesn’t need you! Conservatives need to overcome the Acorn fraud factor. It takes MORE than 50% to beat the Chicago ethic that has trickled down to VA and NJ this year!
P.S.
Sorry for typos,trying to watch world series.
Go Yankees!
12step you said,‘Trying to tell someone what they are and what they think is really only an exercise for yourself to maintain that neat little dichotomy where everyone fits into one category or the other.‘
But earlier you said,‘Sorry, Cobray, moderate is a label for which you don’t fit the bill.‘
What’s up with that?What’s good for the goose….
Look I know very few are purists.Most everybody has some divergent views.But my point was how some are reluctant to stake out a particular position.Liberals seem to get especially incensed when you call them that.Some conservatives are afraid of the label because it ain’t cool,hip.
Whatever, call yourself what you want.
Moderate,independent,socialist if you dare!
But at least be honest with yourself (gee,that sounds familiar)
In regards to the defense of marriage act, its just that.It preserves an institution that has been around for literally 1000’s of years.It’s not a matter of smalll vs big gonvernment.Its a maintaining of tradition,values.Don’t think RThe law defines a marriage as between ONE man and ONE woman, with the accent on ONE, because a bunch of greasy lawywers and judges were trying to reinterpret the defintion of marriage as we know it.It’s like debating the meaning of the word ‘is.‘The law merely sets the record straight( no pun intended)
It doesn’t prevent anyone from engaging in any activity they desire with their partner EXCEPT certain financial benefits of a traditional marriage.Please note it’s a state law, not federal, as Roe v Wade should be.
I think that I, like you, are fairly consistent.I try to be a thoughtful poster ,with a little twist of sarcasm, but if somebody wants to be a smart-aleck, well fine, I can do that ,too.
I know you know what I mean on that one.
Smart Aleck!
Anyway, I’m with you on the lack or leadership for either party nowadays.They don’t make ‘em like Reagan and Goldwater anymore.The Republican Party, for all the opportunity they have right now to fill a void, couldn’t find their rear end with both hands, let alone a party leader.Talk about lost in the woods.They’re more embarassing than the Redskins!
Obama did a good job securing the nomination last year and winning the presidency, but he can’t get anything done with a huge majority in BOTH houses.And don’t blame it on the Republicans or Rush, because he’s got the headcount to pass ANYTHING he desires, if he could just display a little effective leadership.
Not that I’m rooting for him or anything.Bottom linr 12step, people like me and you are screwed.You know as well as I do neither is gonna do anything for us except take more and more of our hard earned dollars to take care of people who expext, no matter who is in power.
I guess it winds down to a mattter of degrees.
Mr. R: I respect the ideals of “conservatism” (I use quotes because, as evidenced, the definition is highly subjective) and adopt many of them in my own life, but there are some things in the conservative movement by which I cannot abide.
Note: The same thing goes with “liberalism”. I can’t bring myself to say I side with either. You can say say that’s wishy-washy, but I think most reasonable people can see the pros and cons of each philosophy. Why should I say I identify with something that I don’t? Saying that everyone should is silly. Trying to tell someone what they are and what they think is really only an exercise for yourself to maintain that neat little dichotomy where everyone fits into one category or the other.
Honestly, conservatism could win me over if people that call themselves conservatives would actually practice what they preach in their campaigns in terms of economic policy and drop the whole moral agenda.
The popular premises are easy to digest, though. Who doesn’t want everyone to be self reliant? Who doesn’t want to pay less taxes? Who doesn’t want to keep the government out of their face?
A point of contention: the gay marriage/“defense of marriage” act. I would think a small government conservative would realize that there is a difference between not endorsing something and actively prohibiting it, even altering the Constitution to reflect the denial of an act. Why should the government have any say over people consensually entering into a socioeconomic relationship?
If “live and let live” is what you say, then why the need to pass a Constitutional amendment? That’s not what “live and let live” means, in my book. That’s government getting deep down into something more personal than your pocket.
I’ve also developed the perception that many self-identified conservatives only want to embrace the economic “keep the government out of my wallet” bit and could really care less about any other facet of liberty as long as they’re in the majority.
Curiously, I’ve heard every conservative administration give lots of lip service to lower taxes, but they don’t want to cut the biggest expenditures in our economy: entitlement programs and the military. Both serve important functions, but so much could be done domestically with the money we use to blow up people in other parts of the world. I’m not saying we shouldn’t fund the military well (or social security, for that matter), but I do think it could be trimmed. However, towing the line and maintaining popularity with the base seems to be more important than principles. Lower taxes are great, but damned near everyone (conservatives included) still feels like they’re entitled to something from the government that they don’t feel they should pay for.
The result? Skyrocketing debt, notably under the watch of Republican administrations (at least every one within my lifetime).
Bring Barry Goldwater back from the dead, make him chairman of the RNC, and we’ll talk.
If you want, I can issue a similar rant about liberalism, but 1) it seems like every negative attribute is extrapolated to the Nth degree and given plenty of lip service in this forum already, and 2) my hands are tired.
Mr Cobray…I’m gonna have to agree with 12step on this one .You’re no moderate.You seem like a right wing conservative to me.
Having said that let me say this,sir.
Welcome Aboard, my friend as I consider myself the same.
I would be proud to be associated with people like you ANY DAY of the week.
I like a man (or woman) that speaks their mind.Sometimes we all go little too far, on both sides, but SO WHAT.
I strongly support EVERYONES free speech.
I just wonder why you would be reluctant to say you’re a conservative.Don’t be. Some (most?) of the greatest Americans were conservative.Me, I never shy away from the conservative label because I’m proud of it.I figure the reason liberals get mad or offended when you call them liberal is because they relly can’t defend their position .
Small government, lower taxes and a strong military make up my basic platform.
I’m pro-life although I don’t support overturning Roe v Wade.In a perfect world it would be a state issue.
I support and voted for Va’s constitutional ban on gay marriages, but I have nothing against gay people.Do what you want in the privacy of your own bedroom just don’t ask me to endorse it.
Live and let live I say.
I just think if you’re conservative, say so.
If you’re liberal, say so.
The moderate or independent label is a cop out.Its like ‘Maybe’.It has no meaning.
I don’t always vote Republican, but I do always vote conservative.Not every candidate gives us 100% of what we want( Bush was a perfect example of that) But when you look at the BIG picture, you have to have some core valiues that you would defend and support no matter what.
I think you do that quite well.
I LMAO at some of your posts.I would like to think that somebody like you is hardcore conservative through and through and to heck with what anybody else thinks.
Especially those darned liberals.
Except 12step…I think he’s OK.There may be hope for him yet.
This is my opinion and my opinion only so if it offends anyone, don’t be.
Have a nice day!!
Cobray, you should be honest; if not with the gentle readers of the Times-dispatch, then you should at least be honest with yourself. You’re no moderate (at least not judging by your statements on here, and what else do we have to go on?). Anyone who says “I ALWAYS vote with my party” is, by definition, partisan (your words, unimbellished).
As well, a “moderate” likely wouldn’t, say, classify all liberal women as lesbians (not the words you used… but I’m sure you remember) or say that the President hates America. Sorry, Cobray, moderate is a label for which you don’t fit the bill.
I consider myself as a Moderate. I have supported in the past some of the OLD Bluedog Demcrats which I did agree with in regards to issues. However, ever since Hillary polorized this Country in the 90s, as a Moderate, I have been leaning more Right.
I had several friends who were Liberals and debating them in the past was never ending it seemed. I could NEVER agree with what they wanted and how they saw the role of government in our lives. I see now mostly Liberal Democrats in Congress as appose to the Blue Dog Democrates which I do repect. Joe Liberman is an excellant example of a Blue Dog Democrat I feel.
I was a huge fan of Ronald Regan and I wish we had more people who were running for office like him and his principals. Whether you liked him or not, he did believe in small gov’t. and he beleived in the system where the people like you and I should choose how we want to live our lives.
“Posted by Anon on November 02, 2009 at 11:51 am
MrCobray,
Are you telling us you were once a Democrat? Seems unlikely.“
Ronald Wilson Reagan was a democrat at one time.
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