T-D Poll: Republicans lead in down-ticket races

T-D Poll: Republicans lead in down-ticket races

TIMES-DISPATCH / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (top), campaigns with Sen. Mark Warner. The GOP’s Bob McDonnell (bottom) campaigns with his daughters, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Sen. Ken Cuccinelli.

» 61 Comments | Post a Comment

Things are looking up for the Republicans' down-ticket candidates, according to the latest poll for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who is seeking re-election, and Ken Cuccinelli, the nominee for attorney general, are heading into Tuesday's election with comfortable leads over their Democratic challengers.

The Times-Dispatch Poll shows Bolling ahead of Jody Wagner, 47 percent to 34 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Bolling's lead is unchanged from an earlier poll for the newspaper.

Cuccinelli is favored over Stephen C. Shannon, 46 percent to 32 percent, with 22 percent undecided. Cuccinelli has doubled his lead from early October.

The findings, paired with the results of separate polls that put Bob McDonnell in front of Democrat R. Creigh Deeds for governor, could portend the first Republican sweep in 12 years.

The Virginia elections are being closely watched as a possible referendum on President Barack Obama, who carried the state last year. He is the first Democrat to win Virginia for the presidency since 1964.

Because they are attracting less attention, the down-ticket contests have become pointed and occasionally personal, punctuated by attack advertisements on television, radio and online.

Regardless, the Republicans are viewed more favorably than their opponents.

Bolling's favorable rating is 38 percent; Wagner's is 23 percent. Cuccinelli has a 35 percent favorable rating; Shannon, 20 percent.

In both races, however, about one-third of respondents could not offer an opinion of the candidates -- a sign they are not widely known even in the final hours of the campaign.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the Times-Dispatch Poll Wednesday and Thursday.

Based on interviews with 625 registered voters likely to cast ballots next week, the results could vary 4 percentage points in either direction.

Even with roughly one in five undecided for lieutenant governor and attorney general, voters in most regions favor Republicans.

GOP candidates also show surprising strength with traditional Democratic constituencies, women and young voters -- an indication that Virginia Democrats, despite a string of victories since 2001, are struggling to energize their base.

Bolling, seeking a second term, has a statistically insignificant edge among women over Wagner, 40 percent to 39 percent.

Wagner is the only woman on the Virginia ballot this year. She is seeking to become the second woman to win statewide office here. Democrat Mary Sue Terry was twice elected attorney general -- in 1985 and 1989.

Bolling leads in all regions, though he and Wagner are neck-and-neck in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia.

Except for voters 18 to 34, who heavily prefer Wagner, Bolling is the favorite of all other age groups.

Cuccinelli, an outspoken foe of abortion and homosexual rights, leads Shannon among women, 42 percent to 37 percent.

Cuccinelli is ahead of Shannon in all age groups, though his advantage among voters 18 to 34 is within the margin of error.

Cuccinelli leads in all regions but one, Northern Virginia, where he and Shannon -- both residents of Fairfax County -- are statistically tied.

Bolling, a former state senator from Hanover County, was narrowly elected lieutenant governor in 2005 over Democrat Leslie L. Byrne of Fairfax.

Wagner, a Virginia Beach lawyer-businesswoman, was finance secretary in the Kaine administration.

Cuccinelli is a state senator from southwestern Fairfax County. Shannon represented the county in the House of Delegates.

In early October, The Times-Dispatch Poll put the Bolling-Wagner spread where it is in the latest survey: 13 percentage points.

The earlier poll put Cuccinelli in front by 7 percentage points.



Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 649-6814 or .

Advertisement

 

Advertisement

Reader Reactions

Flag Comment Posted by DandyAndy on November 02, 2009 at 9:06 am

Cochese asks, “. How much of my labor do you think your messiah has a right to confiscate?“

Well according to the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, they want to tax everything that moves and if it doesn’t move, tax it anyway.  (Those are her words.)

But please, don’t compare Obama with Hitler.  After all, Hitler was able to get the Olympics.

Flag Comment Posted by GodFather on November 02, 2009 at 7:56 am

What is interesting in this is the pattern that has emerged in Virginia Elections since the re-creation of 2 viable parties.  Since that time, the out of power party nationally has always captured the governor’s mansion.  However, the democrats rarely, and in recent years, virtually never, capture the lower spots.  By pattern, Bolling and McDonnel should have lost 4 years ago.  They won.  And it looks like a sweep this year as well.

This apears not to be just another page in the pattern, but a definite repudiation of democrats in general.  Their base is alive and active, but the independents are trying to send a message.

Flag Comment Posted by mrright on November 02, 2009 at 7:20 am

I wonder if Withhunter and Commonsense have seen the latest Gallup Poll on how people identify themselves politically.Actually its a few months old but it doesn’t support the fantasy world they’ve learned over at MSNBC.Sorry.Check it out.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/conservatives-single-largest-ideological-group.aspxally.

Flag Comment Posted by DandyAndy on November 02, 2009 at 6:36 am

RC, yes that joke has been going around for years.  But you are right…there might be some liberals who actually believe it.  After all, these are the same people who were whining and crying after the 2000 election because they “couldn’t read the ballots”.  So, for the record: Tuseday is election day for everyone!!!!!  So you democrats, if you want to bother going out to vote (for all the good it will do), go on Tuesday, not Wednesday, okay?

And to Common Sense who said, “How dumb do they really think the american people are? America WOKE up last fall and elected Obama !!!!“

I think you just answered your own question.

Flag Comment Posted by Cochese on November 01, 2009 at 9:01 pm

Question for all the liberal moonbats. How much of my labor do you think your messiah has a right to confiscate? Why work at all if the government is going to provide everything for by taking it from those that work and giving it to those how can’t or won’t get off their rear end. This country is on the slippery slope. It never ceases to amaze me how these lefty’s want to emulate Hilter, Stalin, and Mao. Of course we know Obama’s right hand girl Anita Dunn loves Mao, the killer of 70 million. The election of Obama is more than I could have ever hoped for. We get to sweep the phony conservatives like bush and McCain aside why the liberals try figure out what’s up. The real working people of this country have been motivated to take this country back. Hoffman in upstate NY is the launching pad.

Flag Comment Posted by TheWitchHunter on November 01, 2009 at 8:44 pm

Well said, Common Sense, those last two posts were excellent and dead on relevant. Thank you for speaking up.

I just wanted to add one thing in response to what you said with:

“Anyone with half a brain can see what the republicans are doing…..they are simply attempting to re-brand themselves as the saviour of the country…..grassroots/less government/tea parties/joe the plumber/sarah palin…..“

What they’re doing is actually worse. In the last election cycle Rep Ron Paul built a sizable conservative libertarian movement that opposed both the disastrous foreign policy and financial decadence of the neo-cons. Although ridiculed at the time by 98% of Republicans, it turns out Ron Paul was right about quite a lot of things. The Ron Paul movement was also real grass roots. The mainstream republicans are jealous of this and view it as a threat. An important objective of what you listed above is to rebrand, hijack, re-purpose and co-opt the populism of Paul’s campaign. Thus they both re-energize their base and neutralize the real populist opposition to failing republican policies coming from the right. This is what the rise of Glen Beck is all about, addressing this particular aspect is his main gig.

Once again, good job on the posts. Keep it up.

Flag Comment Posted by Common Sense on November 01, 2009 at 5:11 pm

If Republicans spent just a little bit of time trying to work FOR our country rather than against it perhaps our recovery would be a little faster. I don’t know how they can truly justify what they are doing especially since it was their policies that got us into this mess. I sure hope their supporters take a good look at what they are doing.

Republicans, wake up and see that your leaders think you all are really stupid. These are the same people who got us into this mess, have done absolutely NOTHING to help get us out of this mess, have NO intentions of working with the duly elected President of the United States. Have no qualms of scaring you people to death, just for power. Rather than doing things the American way their intentions are to ruin the President of Barack Obama just so they can say we told you so. The Republicans in Congress could care less if you have a job or health care or a house to live in. That you don’t have these things makes it easier to manipulate you gullible people. They think you supporters are stupid. But, perhaps you are if you fall for the BS Republicans are dishing out. Do they have any answers? What are they? All we have heard is no, no, no.
When are republicans going to take responsibility for their horrible governing from 2001-07? Their policies led us down to government bailouts? I for once want to see the party own up and now they are johnny come lately to the health care debate after their screaming failed in the summer to stop the progress of reform. Any merging of the tea partier are just a the same section of the GOP coalition, white, older americans who now are blaming others for the spot we are in.
Anyone with half a brain can see what the republicans are doing…..they are simply attempting to re-brand themselves as the saviour of the country…..grassroots/less government/tea parties/joe the plumber/sarah palin….. blah blah blah blah..they know they’re dead in the water and truly believe the limbaugh’s, coulters, o’reilley’s, palin’s are going to help form the next conservative(republican part(ha ha ha) How dumb do they really think the american people are? America WOKE up last fall and elected Obama !!!!
Republicans would blindly elect an uninformed, intellectually lazy carpetbagger based strictly on his ideological “purity”. Unfortunately, McDonnell’s thesis still flourishes in the GOP. As long as that is their direction, many Americans want nothing to do with my former Republican Party.
Moderate Republicans need to overthrow the right wing nut jobs that have hijacked the party if the Republicans ever want to rebuild their party with a solid, truthful voice.

Flag Comment Posted by Common Sense on November 01, 2009 at 4:48 pm

So this is how the republican party will be defined in the coming elections. They are proving to the voters they do not have principals or concrete ideas on how to make this country a better place for ALL and will follow whoever or whatever is popular for the day. I predict a great loss for the republican party in the elections to come. This country will not retreat to the dark ages. It has come too far.
As for Mr Andy, “The democrats have held the Governor’s office for the past 8 years, but you find some way of blaming the road conditions and rest stop closures on the Republicans.“ The Republicans were opposed to all plans for Transportation Funding proposed by the Democratic governors for the last 8 years. Yet, they never came up with a plan of their own to fix the problem. The Repubs chose the Do Nothing plan of action. They would not work with anyone to fix the problem. In the meantime, look at all the potholes in the streets of Richmond!!
“you go on to blame “King George” for the massive national debt even though the House of Representatives, who control any and all spending on a national level, have been in the control of democrats for the past 3 years.“ In 2001, when King George took office, we had a $100 billion dollar surplus and a Republican congress. In 2001, after one year of the Bush presidency and a continuing Republican congress, we had a $100 Billion dollar deficit. And it got worse after that, reaching as much as $450 Billion dollar deficits for FOUR years under a Republican president and Congress. In SIX years, they doubled our National Debt. How Dare you place Blame on anyone but the Republicans! YOU LIE!
Do you understand what a “unitary executive plan” means? The unitary executive theory is a theory of American constitutional law holding that the President controls the entire executive branch. When President Bush signed a new law, sponsored by Senator McCain, restricting the use of torture when interrogating detainees, he also issued a Presidential signing statement. That statement asserted that his power as Commander-in-Chief gives him the authority to bypass the very law he had just signed. King George repeatedly authorized the National Security Agency to conduct electronic surveillance without a warrant, in flagrant violation of applicable federal law. And before that, Bush declared he had the unilateral authority to ignore the Geneva Conventions and to indefinitely detain without due process both immigrants and citizens as enemy combatants. the phrase “unitary executive” is a code word for a doctrine that favors nearly unlimited executive power. Bush has used the doctrine in his signing statements to quietly expand presidential authority.
Bottom line- GOP is more concerned about attaining power then offering a comprehesive set of solutions to run on and govern! Governing is solving problems not pushing them on others.
Republicans are a bunch of selfish thugs.

Flag Comment Posted by MrCobray on November 01, 2009 at 2:49 pm

DandyAndy… I just read your post, and it was NOT rude at all.  I wanted to put this up and say this first or otherwise the Liberal Democrats will claim you have been very unfair with your post.  Even though you were accurate in what you had to say, they will NEVER agree to this as they JUST hate George Bush. 

They know you are correct as they have NEVER lost any freedoms due to the Patoriate Act, but instead they would rather see this country destroyed than admit that they are wrong and you are correct.  They know the polls are going against them, as we do not like Gov’t run healthcare, and their President has done nothing to create jobs….

They too were hoping for CHANGE and all they got was nothing for their vote.  I will not call them UnAmerican as they are good Americans… they however are misguided by the wrong person who has been really dishonest with them and his name is Obama.

Flag Comment Posted by rc on November 01, 2009 at 12:16 pm

The joke about Wednesday being election day for dems is actually pretty old, not as funny as it is frightening when you consider that some, maybe a lot of people believe it. I lean toward the dem side, so possibly I have a skewed view, but it seems to me the dems don’t spread these falsehoods the way the repubs do…like if dems win they’ll outlaw the Bible! It’s probably the slumlords posting signs in their dumps that people can’t vote if they didn’t pay their rent. I didn’t hear it during the campaign, but someone (maybe the gun dealers) spread around that Obama would take away their guns. So everybody believed that and the dealers can’t keep the stuff on the shelf. They’re laughing all the way to the bank. I’m not suggesting for one minute that we should do this, but it would be interesting to know how elections would turn out if people had to pass a test before they could vote. And I’m not suggesting for one minute that I would pass it either, because I sure as the dickens missed the thing about Obama taking away the guns. Seems to me he’s got way bigger fish to fry.

Post a Comment(Requires free registration)

  • Please avoid offensive, vulgar, or hateful language.
  • Respect others.
  • Use the "Flag Comment" link when necessary.
  • See the Terms and Conditions for details.
Click here to post a comment.

 

Advertisement

Advertisement

Online Features
Blogs
DataCenter
Videos
Weekend
 

Advertisement