Deeds fights to hold Obama’s Va. coalition

Last November, Bernard Peyton, a retired warehouse worker, was excited to cast his ballot in the presidential election.

"Barack Obama being an African-American, that's a natural thing," said Peyton, a black Henrico County resident.

On Nov. 3, Peyton, 65, plans to vote for R. Creigh Deeds for governor. But he doesn't detect the same kind of fervor for the state senator from Bath County.

On Oct. 27, Obama returns to Virginia a week before Election Day, hoping to light a fire under the voters who helped him become the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in 44 years.

That appearance, at a site yet to be determined, comes as Deeds struggles to hold together the coalition of blacks, young voters, women and independents that helped sweep Obama to his historic Virginia victory.

At Virginia Commonwealth University, 20-year-old Andrea Elkovich said there is a stark difference from last fall, when the presidential election was the buzz on campus.

"For the governor's election, literally no one has been discussing it," said Elkovich, a biomedical engineering major from Chesterfield County.

Elkovich, who backed Obama, plans to cast an absentee ballot for Deeds. But she adds: "I don't even know if any of my friends are voting in it, to be honest."

In 2008, Obama received 52.6 percent of the nearly 3.7 million votes in Virginia's presidential contest. He is now viewed favorably by 44 percent of Virginia voters, according to a poll conducted Oct. 6-8 for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, says Deeds -- who has trailed Republican Bob McDonnell by 7 to 9 percentage points in recent polls -- can win if he can "energize the huge upsurge in Obama'08 voters."

That is a complicated task, and not merely because Deeds isn't Obama. In Virginia, which holds elections every year, voter fatigue is a factor, and turnout always falls a year after a presidential election.

Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia, predicts a big drop-off, from about 3.7 million in 2008 to somewhere between 2.2 million and 2.6 million on Nov. 3.

A comparison of Virginia's 2008 exit polls and the recent Times-Dispatch survey reveals Deeds' challenge in trying to cobble together the Obama coalition.

Blacks: In November 2008, blacks accounted for 20 percent of Virginia's voter turnout, according to exit polls reported by MSNBC. Obama won 92 percent of blacks' votes, to 8 percent for Republican John McCain.

In the Times-Dispatch poll of 625 likely voters, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. estimated that blacks will make up only 15 percent of this year's turnout. Among blacks surveyed, Deeds had the support of 81 percent, to 9 percent for McDonnell, but 10 percent were still undecided.

Young voters: Obama beat McCain 60 percent to 39 percent among Virginia voters ages 18 to 29, according to the exit polls.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, Deeds led McDonnell among voters ages 18 to 34 by just 46 percent to 42 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

Women: Among Virginia's women voters, Obama won 53 percent to 46 percent, according to the exit polls. In the Mason-Dixon survey, Deeds led McDonnell among women by 45 percent to 40 percent, but 15 percent remained undecided.

Independents: In Virginia, Obama edged McCain, 49 percent to 48 percent in this category. But in the Mason-Dixon survey, McDonnell led Deeds among independents, 47 percent to 33 percent.

Deeds also has been unable to match Obama's support regionally.

Obama carried Northern Virginia by 233,000 votes, Hampton Roads by 79,000 and greater Richmond by 39,000, offsetting other regions, where Republicans rule.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, Deeds led by 9 percentage points in Northern Virginia, but by just 1 percentage point in Hampton Roads. In the Richmond metro area, McDonnell, a former state attorney general and former Virginia Beach delegate, led by 17 percentage points.

Jay McKethan, 25, of Richmond who is taking a semester off after studying at J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College, voted for Obama in November and he now supports Deeds.

But McKethan fears that Republicans are more motivated this year, given Virginia's 32-year streak in which the party that wins the presidency loses the governorship a year later. He also cited political turmoil over the economy and other national issues.

"This time around, I think there's the same enthusiasm," among Virginia voters, "but for the opposite side," he said.

Deeds appeared to point fingers at the Obama administration during a recent interview with a Washington TV station, saying "a lot of what's going on in Washington has made it very tough" for his campaign.

Despite occasional signs of strain, Obama has reached out to the Virginia campaign, as when he praised Deeds during an Aug. 6 fundraiser in Fairfax County. Deeds' campaign used the remarks in radio ads that ran on black-oriented radio stations.

Apparently, they did Deeds some good. On Saturday afternoon, Romaine Freeman of Richmond, a construction worker, sorted his clothes at a coin-operated laundry.

Freeman, 44, said he plans to go to the polls Nov. 3 and vote for "the guy Barack was talking about on the radio."

Contact Andrew Cain at (804) 649-6645 or .

Staff writer Tyler Whitley contributed to this report.