Retail sales rose in October but provided little hope for a robust holiday shopping season to invigorate the economic recovery. The figures, driven by a surge in auto sales, exceeded economists’ expectations—sales rose 1.4 percent last month, the Commerce Department said. But excluding the big rebound in auto sales, the gain was 0.2 percent. And the report included a sharp downward revision to sales in September.

October’s retail sales results, the best performance since April 2008, show that Americans are spending a little more. But will they be willing to pay full price this holiday season? Stores are heading into the period with slashed inventories, determined not to have the fire sales that characterized last Christmas. But shoppers still are facing tight credit and a weak job market and might wait for fat discounts or not buy at all. That game of chicken will determine the holiday winners and losers.

The holiday season has been challenging for retailers dealing with one of the toughest economic climates in years. The Richmond Times-Dispatch is tracking three retailers to see how they do.

Starting last week, I began a series of columns to pass along the tricks, tips and trends that the moderators at DealTaker.com have found in some in-demand categories during the holiday shopping rush. As you can imagine, much of the hottest holiday conversation is about electronics. However, the holidays are for the kids and kids want one thing: Toys.