CHARLOTTESVILLE We’re heading ‘round the final bend in this year’s Virginia contest for governor, so it’s time to take a look at our traditional gubernatorial “north stars.“ These stars, fixed in the firmament and reliable indicators for decades, have long guided our prognostications. Taking the measure of our 10 north stars has proven predictive for all the races from 1969 to 2005, and while nothing is foolproof, there’s no reason the stars won’t illuminate the Governor’s Mansion on Election Night this year.

Fifty years have now passed since the dark days of Massive Resistance, when public schools in some Virginia localities were shuttered rather than integrated. Virginia has had an overall proud and constructive history; yet except for the original sin of slavery, Massive Resistance is the most indelible stain on the state’s soul. When today’s young people are told about the school closings, they are astonished. In retrospect it is almost unbelievable—even for those of us who lived through the era—to accept that public education ceased in order to prevent “the mixing of the races.“

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s decision to step down during her first term could signal that she’s done with elective office, a Virginia political analyst says. “You shouldn’t dismiss that possibility if she’s fed up, and that came across at the press conference,“ the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato said last night. If she does plan future campaigns, Sabato thinks Palin has made a major error. “This will prove very useful to her opponent—she’s up and quit the only statewide office she’s ever held, in midterm. That’s not much of a qualification if you’re running for president,“ Sabato said.

People who live for politics appreciate what real votes in real elections mean. It’s pure heroin for junkies. Six months after a president is chosen, the political community has the shakes. And that is why New Jersey’s and Virginia’s contests for governor always assume a larger role than their actual importance merits. Here we are in the off-off year again, and sure enough, the statehouse battles in the Garden State and the Old Dominion are the focus of a surprising degree of attention.

The major political parties are competing for 58 House of Delegates seats this fall—an increase from recent election cycles. An unofficial tally by the Virginia Public Access Project shows 68 of the 100 seats will be contested, up from 41 in 2007 and 49 in 2005. But 10 of this year’s contests involve a major-party candidate running against an independent. Independents generally have little chance of beating a major-party incumbent.