Among the success stories in Virginia agriculture in 2008 was wine grapes, which became one of the state’s top 20 agricultural commodities, according to new data. Of those 20 top-earning commodities, 12 produced higher cash receipts in 2008 than in 2007, the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services reported yesterday.

It’s about to become official: The recession is over—but not the pain. The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from its deepest slump since the 1930s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But next week, the government will issue a set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.

The average amateur male golfer believes he can consistently drive the ball about 222 yards. In reality, one study says, he typically can drive it only about 192 yards. This same sort of psychological self-delusion, applied in finance and economics, has contributed to some spectacular economic bubbles, including the latest one that has roiled the world economy, one financial analyst said in Richmond yesterday.

You’re staring at a 12-ounce glass. It’s holding about six ounces of water. Is the glass half-filled or half-empty? Chances are good the optimist will say half-filled, noting something is always better than nothing and 50 percent or more gets you closer to where you want to be. You’re headed in the right direction. Keep trying. Besides, there’s an amazing story in how the water was discovered, transported, and poured, no doubt.

A year after a global freeze paralyzed the credit markets, interest rates remain at historic lows. So it’s a good time to borrow money for a home, car or small business. But banks are demanding more collateral, bigger down payments and detailed financial histories from borrowers. And that’s for people with good credit—everyone else need not apply.

The talk now is about “green shoots” and a “light at the end of the tunnel.“ Markets have rallied, housing prices have stopped falling, banks are profitable again, and it seems like we have been able to save several industrial giants that were on the ropes, like General Motors. But we must never forget that the light at the end of the tunnel can be an approaching train.

Fed chief adds that although economy likely is growing now, that won’t be sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.

A year ago, the jobless rate topped 6 percent for the first time in five years, but the peril posed by Tropical Storm Hanna received more attention. We had little clue of the other storm that was approaching, coming not from nearby waters but from Wall Street. A year ago today, the U.S. government took over faltering mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they were deemed too big to fail.

CHARLOTTESVILLE Arecent visit to my ex-home state of Michigan convinced me that Virginia, for all its current budget problems, is far better off than this cradle of America’s auto industry. July’s unemployment rate in Michigan stood at 15.6 percent, well above the national average, while Virginia’s jobless figure was 6.9 percent. Michigan’s projected budget deficit for 2010 exceeds $2 billion, while Virginia’s is half that. Michigan’s governor, Jennifer Granholm, has cut many worthy programs and released prison inmates.

Turnabouts in European and Asian economies, along with recent gains in the U.S., are raising hopes that the worldwide recession is drawing to a close. That’s not to say the coast is clear. The brightening outlook in Europe and Asia and the improvement in U.S. credit markets and indicators reflect heavy government stimulus spending. Many analysts question whether the top economies can sustain recoveries after stimulus measures and easy-credit policies have run their course—and in the absence of significant new consumer spending, especially among Americans.

Xiona Solis, a 56-year-old widow from Honduras who lives in Chesterfield County, has spent the past nine months looking for a job. “The little money I had in the bank went to pay rent,“ she said. Solis, who had been working for a cigarette-packing factory in Chesterfield for eight years until she was fired, said her son-in-law has been paying her rent and bills.

Better-than-expected showing provides the strongest signal yet that the longest recession since World War II is finally winding down.

Even in the toughest of economic times, we need to remember those with special needs. Our organization, the Greater Richmond ARC (formerly the Association for Retarded Citizens), annually serves more than 1,400 area indi viduals with developmental disabilities and their families. Yet there are almost 2,000 Richmonders with similar disabilities whose needs remain unmet.

“You can’t stew in it,“ says one Richmond resident who lost his job at Qimonda in February but is trying to stay positive. An employer says this year is even more frustrating than the last.

Don’t think the hard part is over just because a job offer is on the table. Now it’s on to discussing salary, benefits and other perks. The idea of finessing a better package doesn’t die during a recession, but you should tread carefully when angling for an increase. “Negotiation of your compensation is always a delicate dance,“ said Genevieve A. Roberts, a partner and co-founder of the Titan Group LLC, a human resource-consulting firm in western Henrico County.