GOP’s Bob McDonnell warns against overconfidence while Democrat Creigh Deeds said he can prevail despite gloomy forecast in public opinion polls.

Democrat Jimmy Carter won the 1976 presidential election. In 1977, Virginia elected Republican John Dalton governor. In every election since, Virginia has elected a governor from the party opposing the White House. Whether blessing or curse, the streak has endured. Is the record a coincidence or a reliable reminder that Virginians consider themselves contrarians? Most of the time the Virginia results have lacked national implications, yet twice they served as precursors. George Allen’s come-from-behind win in 1993 set the stage for the GOP’s congressional sweep in the 1994 midterms; similarly, Tim Kaine’s 2005 victory suggested the trends that resulted in Democratic routs in 2006 and 2008.

Virginia’s gubernatorial election is attracting national attention. Experts likely will read too much into the results. They will be tempted to view the campaign primarily as a referendum on Barack Obama’s presidency. Will Virginia serve as a sign of greater trends? It could. Then again, as Larry Sabato pointed out in a recent “Crystal Ball,“ more often than not the state’s off-year elections have lacked national implications. Reputation and reality do not necessarily coincide.

The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce will sponsor a gubernatorial debate Sept. 17 at the Capital One Complex in Tysons Corner.

A new poll shows President Barack Obama’s popularity in Virginia has slipped below 50 percent. The Public Policy poll of 617 likely general election voters showed Obama with a 48 percent approval rating, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The survey showed 46 percent disapproval and 6 percent not sure.

In 1966, Virginia’s political earth quaked. The state underwent seismic electoral change. That year, Democratic Sen. Harry F. Byrd Jr. barely survived a primary challenge mounted by Armistead Boothe. (Byrd had been appointed to the Senate to succeed his father in 1965.) Byrd won the general election, but subsequently declared himself an independent. Twice he won re-election running with the I.

Two days after Brian Moran declared during the first Democratic gubernatorial debate that he would support a repeal of Virginia’s ban on same-sex marriage if elected, the Virginia Partisans Gay and Lesbian Democratic Club is backing his bid for governor.

Virginia’s three Democratic candidates for governor and three candidates for lieutenant governor will participate in a candidate forum tonight at the Southside Community Service Building in Richmond.

The three Democrats seeking their party’s gubernatorial nomination held their first debate in Williamsburg. Those who know Creigh Deeds, Brian Moran, and Terry McAuliffe were not surprised to read Times-Dispatch reporter Olympia Meola’s description of the session as “largely civil.“ During the 2005 campaign for attorney general, Deeds and Bob McDonnell (the victorious Republican now running for governor) generally adopted a high tone. The race’s closing laps had some testiness, but the two seemed out of character. The recount occurred in an atmosphere of civility. Despite being a tough partisan, Moran is one of the most engaging personalities in the political scene. He has a nimble mind. McAuliffe is not everyone’s cup of caffeine, yet he is smart enough to remember that forums such as these reward cool, calm, and collected. He understands the game.

Del. Stephen C. Shannon, D-Fairfax, announced today on the floor of the House of Delegates that he will not seek re-election to the House because he is running for attorney general.

Last weekend the central committee of the Republican Party of Virginia ousted Jeff Frederick as party chairman. Although openly elected at last year’s state convention, Frederick was not the right person for the job. He was disqualified by temperament and other factors. The committee did not take this decision lightly. It made the right call.

Republican Bob McDonnell stressed economic growth as he kicked off his campaign for governor at stops in Annandale, the Richmond area and Virginia Beach today. In the Richmond area, McDonnell has a rally scheduled for 3 p.m. at J.R. Tucker High School on North Parham Road in Henrico County. “The top priority for the next governor is clear: bring people together to solve problems, get our economy moving again and create new jobs and opportunity in our commonwealth,“ he said in prepared remarks.

A state Republican chairman with firm beliefs runs afoul of party potentates. Disagreements rooted in personality, policy and pettiness erupt in full view. Next there is a coup attempt. Jeff Frederick? Nope. Pat McSweeney, who thwarted Gov. George Allen in a front-page struggle 15 years ago for control of the GOP apparatus. Allen attempted to orchestrate an ouster vote by the party’s governing body, the central committee.

C. Richard Cranwell of Vinton said today he will seek re-election as chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe said today Virginia needs to provide tax incentives to encourage the development of jobs-creating renewable energy programs.