Other state schools preview capsules
Old Dominion
Coach: Blaine Taylor, 9th season, 161-942008-09: 12-6 CAA, 25-10
Players to watch: C/F Gerald Lee, Sr.; F/G Ben Finney, Jr.; F Frank Hassell, Jr.; G Marsharee Neely, Sr.; G Darius James, Jr.
Why they will win: Five starters return from a 25-10 team, led by preseason co-player of the year Gerald Lee (15.5 ppg, 5.7 rebounds). Monarchs are tall and physical around the basket, and they were the top team in the conference last season in scoring defense (60.3 points). Keyon Carter (6-8, 7.9 ppg) and G/F Kent Bazemore lead a deep bench.
Why they won't: Hard to find reasons why the Monarchs should not be considered the team to beat in the conference. Nonconference schedule will provide some measuring sticks: Missouri, Richmond, Dayton and Georgetown.
Coach speak: "Having some success made us a little hungrier and more ambitious."
George Mason
Coach: Jim Larranaga, 13th season, 229-1422008-09: 13-5 CAA, 22-11
Players to watch: G Cam Long, Jr.; F Louis Birdsong, Sr.; F Ryan Pearson, So.; F Mike Morrison, So.
Why they will win: Larranaga always seems to have the Patriots in contention for the postseason. While he has 10 sophomores and freshmen, he also has an all-conference player in 6-4 Cam Long (11.7 ppg). Forwards Ryan Pearson (7 ppg) and Mike Morrison (4.0 ppg) were handfuls as freshmen, and Larranaga has some touted recruits.
Why they won't: See above. The Patriots will rely on a large cast of underclassmen, which could lead to some stock-market-style ups and downs, especially early. Schedule isn't conducive to an ease-them-in period. It includes Villanova, Tulane, Dayton, Creighton and potentially Georgia Tech.
Coach speak: "I definitely think we'll be a better team in February than we are going to be in November and December. How quickly the team will gel, how quickly the young players will gain the valuable experience they'll need, how well we'll do at the end of close games. . . . This is probably not the best season to be as young as we are when you consider so many of the top teams have everybody back."
James Madison
Coach: Matt Brady, 2nd season2008-09: 9-9 CAA, 21-15
Players to watch: F Julius Wells, So.; G Pierre Curtis, Sr.; F Denzel Bowles, Jr.; F Andrey Semenov, So.
Why they will win: Sleeper-status describes the Dukes, although they took a big hit when sophomore point guard Devon Moore tore an ACL last weekend in a scrimmage and is likely out for the season. Madison made a huge turnaround under Brady, due in large part to a trio of talented freshmen Moore, CAA rookie of the year Julius Wells and Andrey Semenov. The Dukes add highly regarded 6-10 transfer Denzel Bowles (Texas A&M) after the first semester.
Why they won't: Loss of Moore brings a cloud, although Brady does have an experienced point guard in Pierre Curtis. Dukes have only two seniors - Curtis and 6-7 Dazzmond Thornton - who play a large amount of minutes. Thornton (shoulder surgery) was targeted to return in December but may be back earlier. Madison will be thin up front until he and Bowles join the team.
Coach speak: "I think there is great hope that we can have not just a good team this year, but consistent success. . . . I think there's great hope that we can elevate the program to the top tier in the CAA."
William and Mary
Coach: Tony Shaver, 7th season, 65-1132008-09: 5-13 CAA, 10-20
Players to watch: G David Schneider, Sr.; F Danny Sumner, Sr.; G/F Quinn McDowell, So.; G Sean McCurdy, Sr.
Why they will win: The Tribe expects bigger things from David Schneider and Danny Sumner. They averaged 14.1 and 13.4 points, respectively, but neither had typical seasons and shot less than 40 percent. Quinn McDowell (9.3 ppg) made the all-rookie team. A healthy Sean McCurdy should help offensively. The Arkansas transfer averaged 4.1 points.
Why they won't: William and Mary has little margin for error against most teams in the conference. It will need to make a jump on offense (61.5 ppg, next to last in the conference) and defense (63.4, sixth) to make a jump record-wise. Consistent scorers are needed besides Schneider, Sumner and McDowell. Nonconference schedule has some brutal games: Connecticut, Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland.
Coach speak: "We simply didn't reach our potential as a ballclub last year. We all want to do all we can to correct that. Every member of our staff and every player, I think, has had great offseasons. I think all you can do is make sure your commitment is as high as possible. It's a very good feeling with our club right now."
Liberty
Coach: Dale Layer2008-09: 12-6 Big South, 23-12
Players to watch: G Kyle Ohman, Sr.; G Jesse Sanders, So.; G Jeremy Anderson, So.
Why they will win: With a non-conference schedule that should provide reasonable competition, the Flames can make their mark early in the season. After finishing strong in the Big South and securing a spot in the CollegeInsider.com tournament last year, this year's group will build off that momentum and overachieve based on the seventh-place finish predicted by conference media.
Why they won't: Two key departures virtually ensured that this year will mark a step back for the Flames. Coach Ritchie McKay left to take the assistant job at Virginia with Tony Bennett, and star player Seth Curry transferred to Duke and the bright lights of the ACC. Even with the rest of the roster intact, it's unlikely that Liberty will have what it takes to be competitive in the conference portion of the schedule.
Coach speak: "In the beginning, it was rough at times. As adults, you have experiences to draw upon. These guys have never been through anything like that. It shook them a little bit. But they've regrouped, refocused and have steadily moved forward."
Radford
Coach: Brad Greenberg2008-09: 12-5 Big South, 21-12
Players to watch: C Art Parakhouski, Sr.; F/C Joey Lynch-Flohr, Sr.; G Amir Johnson, Sr., F Phillip Martin, Sr., F Lazar Trifunovic (Serbian-born player who sat out last season after transferring from Binghamton)
Why they will win: If Parakhouski can stay healthy and dominate the way he did last season. The 6-11, 260-pounder from Belarus led Radford to the Big South championship and NCAA tournament berth by averaging 16.2 points and 11.2 rebounds. Almost nobody in the Big South could stop him on a regular basis.
Why they won't: If they can't get the complementary scoring they need. Their second-leading scorer last season, senior guard Kenny Thomas (Highland Springs), is gone. He averaged 14.7 points. Lynch-Flohr added 13.7 and probably will need to score more. Thomas also was Radford's best 3-point shooter (38.7 percent). Every starter except Thomas is back.
Coach speak: "Our projected starting front line is talented, motivated, big and strong. This will be the first time they play together, so they may take some time to adjust to each other." - Greenberg on Parakhouski, Lynch-Flohr and Trifunovic
VMI
Coach: Duggar Baucom2008-09: 13-5 Big South, 24-8
Players to watch: G Austin Kenon, Jr.; F Ron Burks, So.; G Keith Gabriel, So., G Adam Lonon, G Michael Sparks
Why they will win: If Baucom can continue to baffle opponents with his fast-paced, high-scoring offense that relies on pressure defense and shooting an absurd number of 3-pointers. The Keydets took 38 3-pointers per game last season and made 13. Fifty-three percent of the shots they attempted were 3s.
Why they won't: They have to find a way to replace their top two scorers from last season, twins Chavis and Travis Holmes. Chavis led the team with 22 points, while Travis averaged 19.1. Keep an eye on Kenon, who ranked third, with 16.3 points and made 39 percent of the 305 3s he attempted. He took just 93 2-point shots.
Coach speak: "I think [Kenon] is the best 3-point shooter in the league and one of the best 3-point shooters in the country."
Longwood
Coach: Mike Gillian2008-09: 17-14
Players to watch: G Dana Smith, Sr.; G Kevin Swecker, Sr.; F Billy Robinson Jr., Sr.; G Durann Neil, Jr.
Why they will win: The Lancers had a winning record last year, and there's no reason to think they can't build on it in 2009-10. Longwood will play the state's top teams, including Virginia, Virginia Tech, Richmond and Old Dominion, which is great for the team's visibility but bad for its record. But there are plenty of winnable games on the schedule, even on the road, and that bodes well for the Lancers to build momentum.
Why they won't: They still don't have a conference, and that will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future. The bottom line is that without a conference, it's going to be tough to attract top-notch talent to the program. Height also is a big problem, as the school's tallest players are just 6-7. The Lancers have made strides, but have many more remaining.
Coach speak: "We have come so far as a fledgling Division I program, from competitiveness, to respectability, to having some success."
Hampton University
Coach: Edward Joyner2008-09: 8-8 MEAC, 16-16
Players to watch: G Vincent Simpson, Sr.; F Michael Freeman, Sr.; G Kwame Morgan, So.
Why they will win: Three starters return from a .500 team that is picked to finish fourth in the MEAC. Simpson was named second team all-conference last season and is one of the finest 3-point shooters in school history. Freeman is a quality shot-blocker. HU brought in a couple of transfers from Monroe College - forward Charles Funches and guard Mike Tuitt - to provide instant help.
Why they won't: Instability at the top. Joyner was named interim head coach during the offseason following Kevin Nickleberry's resignation. Joyner was Nickleberry's top assistant. HU and its basketball team are hurting from the loss of senior forward Theo Smalling, a returning starter who was killed in an accidental shooting on Oct. 24.
Coach speak: "Not only was he the captain and leader of our team, but the backbone of our team. He will be with us in our hearts and minds when we step on the court."
- Joyner, on the death of senior forward Theo Smalling
Norfolk State
Coach: Anthony Evans2008-09: 9-7 MEAC, 13-18
Players to watch: G Michael Deloach, Sr.; C Joseph Dorsett-Jeffreys, Sr.; G Aleek Pauline, Jr.
Why they will win: The Spartans have the MEAC's preseason player of the year in Deloach, who averaged a league-best 21.5 points last season. Pauline averaged 3.8 assists. He and Deloach might be the MEAC's top backcourt. NSU advanced to the MEAC championship game last season, the first time in school history, and three starters return.
Why they won't: The leadership and scoring of wing Corey Lyons will be difficult to replace. He averaged 15.4 points and was second team all-MEAC. The Spartans are seeking interior forces. They'll miss the rebounding and defense of departed players. Six of the Spartans' potential non-conference opponents participated in postseason play last season.
Coach speak: "This is the most talented roster that I've had here, and we just want to continue the progress that we made last year."
Saint Paul's
Coach: Edward "Buck" Joyner2008-09: 3-15 CIAA, 6-21
Players to watch: F Maurice Reevy, Jr.; G Ibn-Saed Rasoull, So.
Why they will win: Reevy was the only player to average at least 10 ppg who will be back this year. Rasoull averaged 8.8 ppg and 3.0 rpg last season. He was the only Saint Paul's player named to the All-CIAA preseason team.
Why they won't: The Tigers lost two of their three top scorers from last year (Bruce Royal and Anthony Wynn). They're predicted to finish last in the CIAA East and will need a lot of pleasant surprises to win this year.
Virginia State
Coach: George White2008-09: 8-11 CIAA, 14-18
Player to watch: G Trey Mines, Sr.
Why they will win: White starts his first year at VSU after most recently serving as an assistant coach in the NBA Developmental League. He's been successful at higher and lower levels than D-II and he knows what it takes to win. A Harvard graduate, White will help VSU in more areas than just coaching, like scouting, marketing and finance.
Why they won't: The Trojans are struggling as they adjust to a new coach. They'll need to replace their second highest scorer from a year ago, Junius Chaney. Mines has to step up as a leader. They're predicted to finish fourth in the CIAA East.
Coach speak: "It's been a real transition, obviously, putting in a new culture and mentality. It's been more than X's and O's. It's a level of competitive nature that they need to be successful. We've made progress, but we still have ground to cover."
Virginia Union
Coach: Willard Coker2008-09: 13-4 CIAA, 21-7
Players to watch: G Brandon Byerson, Sr. (Thomas Dale); G Braxton Byerson, Jr. (Thomas Dale)
Why they will win: The Byersons. Brandon and Braxton averaged 12.7 and 13.8 ppg last season, respectively. They're both good from behind the 3-point line and both averaged better than a steal per game. Both were named to the All-CIAA preseason team. Union is one of only two CIAA schools to receive votes towards the D-II top 25. The Panthers got 15, which wasn't enough to place them in the ranking. They're predicted to finish first in the CIAA East.
Why they won't: Inexperience. Union returns only five players from last year's squad and has nine new faces. The biggest talent they have to replace is that of Gregg Thondique, who averaged 16.8 ppg last season.
Coach speak: "The tradition at Union is winning. But we went on a [15]-game winning streak, and that's tough [to duplicate] anywhere."
Randolph-Macon
Coach: Nathan Davis2008-09: 14-2 ODAC, 20-6
Players to watch: G/F Jordan Brown, Jr.; F Danny Jones, Jr.; F Brandon Braxton, Jr.
Why they will win: The Yellow Jackets return three starters from last year's squad. They're ranked No. 19 in the country by D3hoops.com. Brown was 2nd team All-ODAC last year. With a strong junior corps and a new coach to carry on tradition, growing pains should be minimal.
Why they won't: R-MC must replace last year's ODAC player of the year Justin Short. . . . After 10 years at the helm, Mike Rhoades resigned to join Shaka Smart's staff at VCU. Davis, an R-MC alum, takes his first head coaching position. One plus is that he's only the fourth coach at R-MC since 1956.
Coach speak: "Certainly, there are some things that we will do differently, however, the formula that has been so successful over, not just the last 10 years under Coach Rhoades, but since Coach [Paul] Webb took over in 1954, will remain the same. We will be committed to being an outstanding defensive basketball team that plays smart and unselfishly on the offensive end."
Hampden-Sydney
Coach: Dee Vick2008-09: 7-9 ODAC, 14-14
Players to watch: G Turner King, Sr.; G Jonathan Mudd, Sr.; G Ben Jessee, So. (Cosby)
Why they will win: The Tigers return three starters from last year and eight letter winners. Turner King returns for his senior season. His 17.8 ppg in 2008 was fourth-best in the conference. H-SC has a good nucleus of shooters and post players who can score points. Jessee has gained 10 lbs. of muscle and is the Tigers' most improved player.
Why they won't: Tough opponents in conference. Guilford (No. 3) and Randolph-Macon (No. 19) are both ranked in the top 25 by D3hoops.com. . . . Tigers are inexperienced. Freshmen Randall Ward (John Marshall) and Patrick Corrigan (Collegiate) are smart, but will have a fast learning curve.
Coach speak: "It is too early to tell if we are better than last year. We are more talented, but we lost valuable leadership. We have a nice group of new players and we need them to mature quickly. We need them to get through the difficult transition as soon as possible."
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