Less travel forecast for Fourth of July weekend

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Tourism officials across the state expect an unspectacular Fourth of July holiday this recession-pummeled summer.

"It won't be our best one ever," said Jack Berry, president and CEO of the Richmond Metropolitan Convention & Visitors Bureau.

But Virginia's travel industry likely will fare somewhat better than the nation at large.

And with any luck -- and some careful driving -- the holiday period could see fewer traffic fatalities than last year.

Drivers are likely to encounter the heaviest holiday traffic on Thursday night and Friday, according to state police, and then again on Sunday as people hurry home for the work week.

But the number of Virginians traveling on vacation this Fourth of July holiday weekend will drop overall by 1.8 percent from 2008, Windy VanCuren with AAA Mid-Atlantic said yesterday.

The travel group projected that just more than 1 million travelers in Virginia will take a trip 50 or more miles away from home this holiday. Nationally, AAA forecast a 1.9 percent decrease in Fourth of July travel compared with 2008.

Rising unemployment coupled with sagging personal income, and the recent rise in gasoline prices -- 17 cents higher than the same time a month ago -- also may cause some travelers to curtail holiday plans, VanCuren said.

Despite that, Tamra Talmadge-Anderson with the Virginia Tourism Corp., the state's travel promotion organization, said "research on a national level indicates people are still planning to travel but plan to take shorter trips and stay closer to home."

"People have a tendency to trade down but not out," said Ron Kuhlman, vice president of tourism sales with the Virginia Beach Convention and Visitors Bureau.

But AAA expects a 6.4 percent increase in air travel by Virginians this weekend, after the airline industry experienced a steep decline a year ago. Air travel accounts for about 5.6 percent of leisure travel of Virginians.

For those staying close to home, the Richmond region has more than 70 events and attractions this Independence Day holiday, Berry noted.

And "Richmond's history is essentially America's history," said Erin Bagnell with the metropolitan visitors bureau.

"So folks looking to celebrate our country's beginnings would look to Richmond as a place to learn about those beginnings -- and also enjoy some fun and festivities," she said.

Traditionally Virginia Beach hasn't suffered as much as other summer tourist destinations, Kuhlman said, "because we're so close to large markets like Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York [and] New Jersey."

Still the number of visitors to Virginia Beach this July 4 likely will be about the same as last year, he said.

The state's tourist industry benefits from the fact that Virginia is within a day's drive or less of more than 60 percent of the U.S. population, making the state a great option for close-in vacations, Talmadge-Anderson said.

Though the Fourth of July is not prime time for The Jefferson Hotel in Richmond, "we are actually doing slightly better than last year," said the five-star hotel's Jennifer Crisp. She attributed the uptick to the hotel's $205-a-night discount package available this summer.

The Fourth of July is one of Washington's busiest traffic days, and traditionally the Independence Day celebration is the big event of the year on the National Mall.

"As many as several hundred thousand people will come to the Mall," said Victoria Isley, senior vice president of marketing and communications with Destination DC, Washington's tourism agency.

But in the past month, the economic slump has started to nibble away at the tourist business in the nation's capital, Isley said. To help boost tourism, 30 hotels in the city are offering 30 percent off the price of a three-night weekend stay, with rates beginning at $79 a night.

Highway safety during the Fourth of July travel period merits concern, state police said.

So far this year, Virginia has seen a 16 percent decrease in traffic fatalities compared with the same period last year, state police Capt. Steve Chumley said yesterday.

During the past five years, travel during the Fourth of July holiday on Virginia's highways has been about 30 percent more dangerous than average daily auto travel, according to figures from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles.

From 2004 to 2008, the Fourth of July holiday period averaged more than 3.4 fatalities per day in Virginia, while the average daily number of traffic fatalities in the state for those years was slightly less than 2.6.

Last year, however, the average number of daily fatalities during the Fourth of July holiday period on the state's roads was 2.5.

Contact Peter Bacqué at (804) 649-6813 or .