A difficult decision looms for Godwin's Gragnani

Reed Gragnani had a plan for his future. Of course, that was before major-league scouts got in the way.

The Mills Godwin shortstop wanted to go to college. But last summer, while he played in the Cal Ripken, Sr. Collegiate League, those pesky scouts got wind of Gragnani's talent. They saw him hit .324 despite being the youngest player in the league. They saw the mechanics and talent that have caused some to regard him as the best player in the state of Virginia.

Now he's got a dilemma.

Gragnani still wants to go to college -- he signed with Virginia last year -- but should a major-league team decide that he's worth big bucks, his plans may take a detour.

"[The money] is going to have to be pretty significant," Gragnani said. "It's got to be significant enough to where I'm turning down an education at U.Va."

It's not a question of whether he'll get picked in the June 9 first-year player draft, but when. He's projected to go anywhere in the top five rounds. If Gragnani goes in the first round, he could get a signing bonus in the millions. In the second round, in the high six-figures. Apparently, that's worth batting an eye at.

"If you're a high enough draft pick, and they start throwing ginormous sums of money at you, I think you do have to look at that," Mills Godwin coach John Marano said. "I think in this day and time, you've got to look out for yourself economically."

It is simply impossible to predict where Gragnani will go in the draft, let alone how much money he'll be offered. The 2009 draft has the potential to change how things will be done for years to come.

"A lot of people are speculating that because of the economy and attendance being down and some clubs struggling, and what happened in the free-agent market, that clubs may be less willing to pay big bonuses for drafted players," said Chris Marinak, Director of Labor Economics for Major League Baseball.

On the other hand, Scott Boras wants big money for Stephen Strasburg two tickets to front row seats at Yankee Stadium type of money. Strasburg could double or triple last year's highest signing bonus of $6,200,000, causing the rest of the first round to increase beyond the norm. If Gragnani goes high enough, Strasburg could raise Gragnani's payout.

"This is one of those years that there's no precedence for," Marinak said.

But if Gragnani falls to the third round or lower, he'll probably get a bonus that is less significant.

And if he heads to Virginia, major league scouts will be all over him again in three or four years. But the player they will be look at could be quite different from the one they see today.

At 5-11, 175-lbs, Gragnani describes himself as a gap-to-gap hitter one who hits line drives for extra-base hits, but not necessarily home runs. Chris Gerrity, Gragnani's coach at Richmond Baseball Academy, compares Gragnani to Baltimore Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts. The two are comparable in size and tools. Both are speedy. Both are consistent switch hitters.

But a lot of people think Gragnani could turn into a power hitter.

Lee Banks, Gragnani's coach in the Cal Ripken Sr. Collegiate League, says Gragnani reminds him of Ryan Zimmerman when he was in high school. Zimmerman was smaller in high school, like Gragnani, and didn't get bigger or develop power until he got to U.Va.

Does Gragnani have a chance to outgrow his Lilliputian physique?

If his older brother is any indication, he does.

Robbie Gragnani, who was 5'11 when he played for Godwin, hit 6'3 by the time he started playing at VCU. Robbie says that if Reed were 6'3 now, he'd be headed to the pros with a great offer in hand.

Reed has the fundamentals that make him a great hitter. "He's got bat speed that you can't teach," Robbie said. Add a few inches to his height, a dozen pounds or so, plus the added speed of higher quality pitchers at the next level, and Reed Gragnani could become a power hitter, Robbie says.

"Big bulky guys try to hit line drives to both sides, but they're so big and strong that the ball goes out," Reed said.

U.Va. coach Brian O'Connor agrees. He says he thinks Gragnani can be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter at some point in his career. As for now, O'Connor says Gragnani is the best player in the state and that he'll have quite the quandary to solve when the draft comes along.

Contact Eric Kolenich at ekolenich@timesdispatch.com or (804) 649-6901.